Model |
01:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zmienna |
zależna: |
y1 |
|
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|
|
y1 |
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const |
5194,08 |
155,29 |
33,45 |
5,94E-44 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
time |
2,36365 |
3,80173 |
0,6217 |
0,5362 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
5277,993 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
639,815 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
28086402 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
642,6782 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,005652 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
-0,00897 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F(1, |
68) |
0,386546 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
0,536199 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-550,9062 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
1105,812 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
1110,309 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
1107,599 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,731941 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,515327 |
|
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|
x1 |
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|
Model |
16:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
|
Model |
17:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
Zmienna |
zależna: |
x1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zmienna |
zależna: |
x1 |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const |
1404,41 |
58,9515 |
23,82 |
1,01E-34 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
const |
1539,3 |
88,0526 |
17,48 |
1,16E-26 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
time |
17,2272 |
1,44322 |
11,94 |
2,41E-18 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
time |
5,98678 |
5,72317 |
1,046 |
0,2993 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sq_time |
0,158316 |
0,0781186 |
2,027 |
0,0467 |
** |
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
2015,979 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
426,117 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
4047592 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
243,9742 |
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
2015,979 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
426,117 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,676935 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
0,672184 |
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
3813803 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
238,5842 |
|
|
F(1, |
68) |
142,484 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
2,41E-18 |
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,695595 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
0,686509 |
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-483,1055 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
970,211 |
|
|
|
|
F(2, |
67) |
76,55084 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
4,96E-18 |
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
974,708 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
971,9973 |
|
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-481,0232 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
968,0464 |
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,757993 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,484002 |
|
|
|
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
974,7918 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
970,7257 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,741027 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,514943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
lin |
243,9742 |
59523,41026564 |
|
F |
1,04569359056812 |
trend niżeszego rzęd, nie ma podstaw do odrzucenia H0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
kwad |
238,5842 |
56922,42048964 |
|
F kryt |
1,49721 |
|
|
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|
x2 |
|
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|
Model |
20:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
|
Model |
21:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
Zmienna |
zależna: |
x2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zmienna |
zależna: |
x2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const |
3445,41 |
23,495 |
146,6 |
8,66E-87 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
const |
3353,5 |
32,9596 |
101,7 |
3,67E-75 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
time |
-21,1532 |
0,575192 |
-36,78 |
1,31E-46 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
time |
-13,4937 |
2,14228 |
-6,299 |
2,66E-08 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sq_time |
-0,107881 |
0,0292411 |
-3,689 |
0,0005 |
*** |
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
2694,471 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
441,1807 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
642922,9 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
97,23553 |
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
2694,471 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
441,1807 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,952129 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
0,951425 |
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
534365 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
89,3062 |
|
|
F(1, |
68) |
1352,47 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
1,31E-46 |
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,960212 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
0,959024 |
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-418,7107 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
841,4213 |
|
|
|
|
F(2, |
67) |
808,4551 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
1,24E-47 |
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
845,9183 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
843,2076 |
|
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-412,2376 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
830,4751 |
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,856792 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,214611 |
|
|
|
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
837,2206 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
833,1545 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,870031 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,256215 |
|
|
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|
|
Model |
22:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zmienna |
zależna: |
x2 |
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const |
3161,22 |
29,3426 |
107,7 |
6,61E-76 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
lin |
97,23553 |
9454,7482943809 |
|
F |
1,18545957994928 |
|
|
|
time |
17,8964 |
3,55376 |
5,036 |
3,92E-06 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
kw |
89,3062 |
7975,59735844 |
|
|
1,49721 |
|
|
|
sq_time |
-1,20537 |
0,115863 |
-10,4 |
1,51E-15 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
time3 |
0,010305 |
0,00107314 |
9,603 |
3,74E-14 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
2694,471 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
441,1807 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
222917,8 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
58,11663 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,983402 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
0,982647 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F(3, |
66) |
1303,44 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
1,19E-58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-381,6379 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
771,2758 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
780,2698 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
774,8483 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,709053 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,579492 |
|
|
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|
|
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|
x3 |
|
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|
|
|
Model |
24:00:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
|
Model |
25:00:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
Zmienna |
zależna: |
x3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zmienna |
zależna: |
x3 |
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const |
82,113 |
1,33284 |
61,61 |
2,17E-61 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
const |
87,9395 |
1,82192 |
48,27 |
8,90E-54 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
time |
0,18756 |
0,0326299 |
5,748 |
2,33E-07 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
time |
-0,297978 |
0,11842 |
-2,516 |
0,0143 |
** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sq_time |
0,00683856 |
0,00161638 |
4,231 |
7,23E-05 |
*** |
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
88,77143 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
6,675005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
2069,02 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
5,516047 |
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
88,77143 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
6,675005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,327004 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
0,317107 |
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
1632,802 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
4,936617 |
|
|
F(1, |
68) |
33,04072 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
2,33E-07 |
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,468894 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
0,45304 |
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-217,8474 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
439,6949 |
|
|
|
|
F(2, |
67) |
29,5759 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
6,22E-10 |
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
444,1919 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
441,4811 |
|
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-209,5602 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
425,1204 |
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,960732 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,2702 |
|
|
|
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
431,8659 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
427,7998 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,88255 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,33294 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Model |
26:00:00 |
Estymacja |
KMNK, |
wykorzystane |
obserwacje |
2002:01-2007:10 |
(N |
= |
70) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zmienna |
zależna: |
x3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
współczynnik |
błąd |
standardowy |
t-Studenta |
wartość |
p |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const |
83,0473 |
2,35112 |
35,32 |
1,37E-44 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
time |
0,500681 |
0,28475 |
1,758 |
0,0833 |
* |
|
|
|
|
|
lin |
5,516047 |
30,426774506209 |
|
F |
1,2485244368845 |
|
|
|
|
sq_time |
-0,0210847 |
0,00928369 |
-2,271 |
0,0264 |
** |
|
|
|
|
|
kw |
4,936617 |
24,370187404689 |
|
F kryt |
1,49721 |
|
|
|
|
time3 |
0,000262191 |
8,60E-05 |
3,049 |
0,0033 |
*** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Średn.aryt.zm.zależnej |
88,77143 |
Odch.stand.zm.zależnej |
6,675005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suma |
kwadratów |
reszt |
1431,188 |
Błąd |
standardowy |
reszt |
4,65668 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wsp. |
determ. |
R-kwadrat |
0,534473 |
Skorygowany |
R-kwadrat |
0,513313 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F(3, |
66) |
25,25831 |
Wartość |
p |
dla |
testu |
F |
5,35E-11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logarytm |
wiarygodności |
-204,9475 |
Kryt. |
inform. |
Akaike'a |
417,895 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kryt. |
bayes. |
Schwarza |
426,8889 |
Kryt. |
Hannana-Quinna |
421,4675 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Autokorel.reszt |
- |
rho1 |
0,849707 |
Stat. |
Durbina-Watsona |
0,362671 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|