Plenty of seeds, but still a long way to fruition

Xan Smiley: Middle East and Africa editor, The Economist

From The World in 2006 print edition

Arab democracy in 2006

Democracy is not about to break out all over the Middle East. Monarchs and republican dynasts, however benevolent, will not be handing over power to the people. A Berlin-style wall in the desert, protecting rulers from the ballot box, is not about to crumble. But George Bush's determination to spread the notion of democracy as a hoped-for antidote to Islamist terrorism has changed the mood of the region—and will continue to do so.

The biggest steps towards democracy will take place in two of the most problematic and volatile places: Palestine and Iraq.

In January the Palestinians will vote for a new parliament. For the first time, the Islamic Resistance Front, better known as Hamas, will probably take part, despite Israeli misgivings. It will do well, perhaps nearly matching the incumbent party, the late Yasser Arafat's Fatah, at the polls. The Palestinians' election is likely to be the freest and fairest in the Arab world. If Fatah does hold on to power under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas, its fresh legitimacy will with luck enable it to engage with Israel's government in an effort to persuade it to give back nearly all of the territory conquered in the war of 1967.

Democracy in Iraq will be much more fraught—but it will advance. Despite the hostility of Iraq's Sunni Arabs to the new constitution, passed (just) in the autumn of 2005, they will start participating more fully in Iraq's democracy, even though many will continue to help the insurgents. And they will be much better represented in the new parliament. More of them will turn against the extreme end of the insurgency, where the likes of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who claims to be al-Qaeda's local representative and who detests the apparently godless notion of democracy, will become increasingly unpopular, even among Sunnis who want the Americans and their allies to quit.

Democracy in Iraq will be much more fraught—but it will advance

So the bomb will compete against the ballot box, the prevalence of violence making it harder for democracy to take hold. But many Iraqis, especially the Shia Arabs and Kurds, who together make up 80% of the people, are determined that it should.

The germ of democracy will spread in a number of less violent Arab countries. Lebanon, in particular, will continue to shed Syrian influence and will re-emerge as the most sophisticated and liberal Arab state in the region. And the Americans will promote a trio of more or less benevolent monarchies—Morocco, Jordan and Bahrain—as exemplars of their democracy campaign.

By most criteria, setting aside the odd cases of Palestine, Iraq and Lebanon, Morocco is the group leader among the rest of the Arab League's 22 countries. It will allow real political parties to compete. Its Equity and Reconciliation Commission will air and investigate past human-rights abuses, though rather more selectively than the South Africans did. Its family code should let women enjoy more rights.

Jordan and Bahrain, both quite open by Arab standards, are not as go-ahead. The only serious political party in Jordan's parliament is the opposition Islamic Action Front; King Abdullah will continue to call the shots. In Bahrain, the majority Shias will remain under-represented and politically surly.

More to the point, in all three of these front-runners towards democracy, the monarch has ultimate power. No one expects them to become real constitutional monarchs any time soon, though they all claim to be gently heading that way. But they will tiptoe ahead.

Islamists in moderation

The big question, for all Arab countries moving slowly towards greater political choice, is how much leeway to give Islamist groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which has a wide following across the region. Sensing a chance to get back into the mainstream, moderate Islamists will make headway by persuading governments that it is wiser to have them working inside the system than undermining it from outside. Even so, the secular regimes that dominate the Arab world will remain nervous that Islamists, however well repackaged as moderates, will achieve too much influence through the ballot box—with no intention of retaining multi-party democracy should they ever achieve power. Yet continuing to suppress them is even more certain to stoke up dangerous discontent.

How to accommodate apparently moderate Islam, in order to spike the likes of al-Qaeda? Egypt is the litmus test here. It may feel obliged to give the Muslim Brotherhood more space; but will not risk giving it a real chance of power.

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