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ÿþYe. T. Gaidar State of the World Market and Prospects for Economic Policy in Prospects for Economic Policy in Russia. 22 January 2008, Institute for the Economy in Transition 1 Annual GDP growth rates in Russia, % 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* -2 -4 -6 -8 2 Annual growth rates of investments, % 25 20 15 10 10 5 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* -5 -10 -15 3 Growth rates of incomes in real terms, % 20 15 10 5 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* -5 -10 -15 -20 4 Growth rates of output in manufacturing, % 50 40 30 20 10 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* -10 -20 Machinery and equipment total Electronics and optics manufacturing Transport vehicles and equipment 5 Exports of machinery and equipment from Russia, % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* -5% -10% -15% 6 Growth in communication sector, % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 7 Output growth rates: extractive industries versus manufacturing, 2003-2007 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* Extractive industries Manufacturing 8 Growth rates of world GDP (left-hand scale) and price trends for crude oil and metals (right- hand scale) 6 70 60 5 50 40 4 30 30 20 3 10 0 2 -10 -20 1 -30 0 -40 25AL <8@ =5DBL <5B0;;K 25AL <8@ (A@54=55) 9 * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Net inflow/outflow of investments in developing countries, billion USD (left-hand scale) and world GDP growth rates (right-hand scale) 150 6 100 5 50 4 0 3 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -50 2 -100 1 -150 0 ?@8B>:/>BB>: :0?8B0;0, <;@4. 4>;;. B5<?K @>AB0 <8@>2>9 M:>=><8:8 10 Thailand s balance of capital transactions before and during the Asian financial crisis, % of GDP 15 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 -5 -10 -15 -20 11 GDP growth rates in Thailand, 1992-1998, % 10 5 0 1992-95 1996 1997 1998 -5 -10 -15 12 GDP growth rates in China, 2000-2007 and forecasts for 2010, % 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 2000-2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009* 2010* 13 Growth rates of Consumer Price Index in China, 2000-2008, % 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000-2005 2006 2007 2008* IMF data China's official statistics 14 Growth rates of world GDP, Russia s GDP, and GDP of the CIS excluding Russia, 1996-2008 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* -2 -4 -6 -8 World total Russia CIS (excl. Russia) 15 Russian Exports in 2006 Other commodities 14% Machinery, equipment and transport vehicles 6% Metals and metal products 14% Mineral products 66% 16 Economic growth and General Government budget deficit/surplus (as a share of GDP) in USA 6 4 2 0 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008* -2 -4 -6 -8 GDP growth rates Budget surplus/deflict 17 Federal and General Government s Budget Surplus (left-hand scale) and GDP growth (right-hand scale) 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 General government budget surplus Federal budget surplus GDP growth rates 18 General government s expenditures growth rates in Russia, % 20 15 10 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* -5 19 Crude oil prices in the long run, constant 2000 dollars 80 70 Average annual price 60 50 Average historic level (19.41 USD per barrel) Average historic level (19.41 USD per barrel) 40 30 20 10 0 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20 Price, 2000 constant USD per 1 barrel * Price, 2000 constant USD per 1 barrel * UK Brent prices in 2007 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 jan feb mar apr may june july aug sept oct nov dec US dollars per barrel Euros per barrel 21 Consumer Price Index growth in Russia, % 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 22 Real wages growth rates, % 25 20 15 10 5 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 23 Proportion of Russian industrial enterprises that name workforce shortage as an obstacle to output growth (polls data), % 50 40 30 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 24 forecast Net import/export of capital by private sector in Russia, in billions of USD 100 80 60 40 20 0,1 0 -20 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -40 25 Russian external debt, in billions of USD 400 350 300 250 200 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* Private sector Public sector 26 Russian gold and foreign currency reserves by end of year, in billions of USD 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 27 Russian Stabilization Fund by 31 December of corresponding year (as a Share of GDP) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 28 General Government s budget revenues growth 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 29 Russia and France: average annual growth of government revenues, in % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 France (1950-1980) Russia (Gen. Govt.) 2000-2007 30

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