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Testing indicates that the proportion of people who have had COVID-19 in the U.K. is Iow, but that there is considerable variation. This may indicate a lower herd immunity threshold

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	Virus epidemiology
How SARS-CoV-2 spreads and who it
V	harms most

How have levels of infection varied between different population groups?

The ONS in the U.K. has continued to undertake widespread testing to determine the historical and current presence of COVID-19

Most recently, they estimated c.7% of the U.K. population had had COVID-19 at some stage sińce March, based on antibody testing of 885 individuals. Of this, they estimate that for an average day in May, 0.4% of the population were infected, based on PCR tests

The ONS’s work further estimated that people working in patient-facing roles were six times morę likely to have caught COVID than others, and those working outside of home were three times morę likely. No variation was observed for age or gender

This variation indicates how differences in individuals’ level of connectivity with other people changes the likelihood of catching the virus. This is important, as variation in connectivity or susceptibility influences the level at which herd immunity is reached

The Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine has used new modelling techniques to estimate this relationship, and to estimate that herd immunity may be achieved at lower levels than typically assumed

Nevertheless, if EU5 nations have had total infections at or around the level quantified for the U.K., they remain a long way off even these lower levels of estimate, and therefore reaching herd immunity can still be expected to take some time

Further detail page 9

Further detail page 9

Further detail page 10

Further detail page 10

8 O 2020 L E K. Consulting LLC