Tomasz Puzyrewicz
Katedra Analizy Rynków i Konkurencji

6]NRáD*áyZQD+DQGORZD

KRYZYSY WALUTOWE I FINANSOWE – WYBRANE PRZYPADKI

'UXJDSRáRZD;;ZLHNXE\áDRNUHVHPEDUG]RGX*HJRZ]URVWX]QDF]HQLDJOREDOQ\FK

SU]HSá\ZyZNDSLWDáRZ\FK1LHFKRG]LWXZ\áF]QLHR]DPLDQ\LORFLRZH±SU]\URVWZDUWRFL

SU]HSá\ZyZ NDSLWDáRZ\FK E\á RJURPQ\ DOH VDP Z]URVW LORFLRZ\ QLH E\á W\P HOHPHQWHP

NWyU\ZSURZDG]LáD*WDNGX*H]PLDQ\ZIXQNFMRQRZDQLXJRVSRGDUNLZLDWRZHM:D*QLHMV]H

E\á\SRF] FLZ\QLNDMFH]SU]HPLDQLORFLRZ\FKSU]HPLDQ\MDNRFLRZH]DFKRG]FHZQD

PL G]\QDURGRZ\FKU\QNDFKLZPL G]\QDURGRZ\FKLQVW\WXFMDFKILQDQVRZ\FK

-DNR SU]\F]\Q\ LQWHUQDFMRQDOL]DFML L JOREDOL]DFML U\QNyZ ILQDQVRZ\FK PR*QD WX

Z\PLHQLü

•

rozwój korporacji transnarodowych,

•

rozwój eurodolarowych rynków finansowych,

•

innowacje finansowe,

•

DPHU\NDQL]DFMHZLDWRZHJRV\VWHPXILQDQVRZHJR

1

.

.U\]\V\SRáXGQLRZRDPHU\NDVNLH

$PHU\ND3RáXGQLRZDZWU]HFKRVWDWQLFKGHNDGDFKE\áDVFHQZLHOXVSHNWDNXODUQ\FK

NU\]\VyZ ZDOXWRZ\FK L ILQDQVRZ\FK $QDOL]D SRUyZQDZF]D W\FK ]MDZLVN PR*H GRVWDUF]\ü

ZLHOX FLHNDZ\FK ZQLRVNyZ GRW\F]F\FK L SRGRELHVWZ L PHFKDQL]PyZ U]G]F\FK W\PL
procesami.

.U\]\V PHNV\NDVNL ]  U MDNNROZLHN QDMEDUG]LHM ]QDQ\ QLH E\á MHG\Q\P WHJR

W\SX ]MDZLVNLHP Z JRVSRGDUNDFK SDVWZ $PHU\NL àDFLVNLHM Z FLJX RVWDWQLFK  ODW

3RSU]HG]DáJRFKRFLD*E\NU\]\VZDOXWRZ\Z&KLOHZODWDFK

2

. Po zamachu stanu w

 URNX U]G ZSURZDG]Lá V]HUHJ UHIRUP ± F] FLRZH ]QLHVLHQLH EDULHU Z KDQGOX

]DJUDQLF]Q\P]UyZQRZD*HQLHEXG*HWXSU\ZDW\]DFM VWDELOL]DFM Z\VRNLHMLQIODFML'RURNX

ZL NV]RüUHIRUP]DNRF]\áDVL VXNFHVHP3R]RVWDáMHG\QLHSUREOHPLQIODFML:FHOX

SRNRQDQLD WHJR RVWDWQLHJR SUREOHPX XVWDORQ\ ]RVWDá V]W\ZQ\ NXUV SHVR Z]JO GHP GRODUD

QLH]PLHQQ\ SU]H]  ODWD SRPLPR LQIODFML QD SR]LRPLH  ,QIODFMD ]RVWDá SRNRQDQD

SRMDZLá\VL MHGQDNVWDUHNáRSRW\±GHILF\WZKDQGOX]DJUDQLF]Q\PE\áSR]LRPLH3.%D

GHILF\WREURWyZELH*F\FKQDSR]LRPLH3.%

3RMDZLá\ VL  QRZH SUREOHP\ ± V]\ENL VSDGHN RV]F] GQRFL NUDMRZ\FK 6WDá\ NXUV

ZDOXWRZ\E\á(UyGáHPGRVW SQRFLGRNDSLWDáX]DJUDQLF]QHJR*áyZQ\PFHOHPSROLW\NLU]GX

E\áR]ZDOF]HQLHLQIODFML7HQFHO]RVWDáRVLJQL W\QDSU]HáRPLHLURNXNLHG\WR

LQIODFMDE\áDQDZHWXMHPQD-HGHQSUREOHP]RVWDá]OLNZLGRZDQ\SRMDZLáVL NROHMQ\±ZUyFLáD

UHFHVMD5HFHVMDFDá\F]DVEURQLRQ\VWDá\NXUVZDOXWRZ\RUD]GHILF\WKDQGORZ\VSUDZLá\*H

SRZV]HFKQH VWDáR VL  SU]HNRQDQLH R QLHXFKURQQRFL GHSUHFMDFML SHVR :]URVá\ VWRS\

SURFHQWRZHFRE\áRWDN*HZ\QLNLHPQLVNLHMSRGD*\NUDMRZ\FKRV]F] GQRFL2V]F] GQRFL

NUDMRZHVSDGá\]SR]LRPX3.%ZUGRSR]LRPX3.%ZUSU]\VWDOH

1

J. K. Solarz, P.

:\F]DVNL ,QWHUQDFMRQDOL]DFMD L JOREDOL]DFMD V\VWHPyZ EDQNRZ\FK 'RZLDGF]HQLD

zagraniczne i wnioski dla Polski), Bank i Kredyt, czerwiec 1997, s. 101.

2

R. Dornbusch, I. Goldfajn, R. O. Valdes, Currency Crises and Collapses, „Brookings Papers on Economic

Activity, No. 2/1995. S. 222-229.

2

Tomasz Puzyrewicz

XWU]\PXMF\P VL  GHILF\FLH Z KDQGOX ]DJUDQLF]Q\P : ODWDFK  GáXJ SXEOLF]Q\

Z]UyVá ] SR]LRPX  POG GRODUyZ GR SR]LRPX  POG GRODUyZ 1DVWSLáR WH* ]QDF]QH

SRJRUV]HQLH VL  ZDUXQNyZ ]HZQ WU]Q\FK terms of WUDGH VSDGá\ R  SRPL G]\  L

UZ]URVá\WDN*HVWRS\SURFHQWRZHQDPL G]\QDURGRZ\PU\QNXILQDQVRZ\P

3

.

:\VRNLHVWRS\SURFHQWRZHRND]Dá\VL ZD*Q\PF]\QQLNLHPNU\]\VRJHQQ\PMDNR*H

GX*HEDQNXLILUP\FKLOLMVNLHZREOLF]XZ\VRNLFKVWySQDU\QNXNUDMRZ\PZSRSU]HGQLFK

ODWDFKSUHIHURZDá\SR*\F]NLQDU\QNDFK]DJUDQLF]Q\FKZGRODUDFK

3RGNRQLHFVSDGáD]QDF]FSURGXNFMDSRMDZLáRVL GX*HEH]URERFLH6WDá\NXUV

ZDOXWRZ\ZWDNLFKZDUXQNDFKE\áQLHREURQ\±SHVR]RVWDáR]GHZDOXRZDQHRZF]HUZFX

U3URGXNFMDZUyFLáDGRSR]LRPXVSU]HGGHZDOXDFMLGRSLHURZU

-HGQ\P]Z\MDQLHSU]\F]\QNU\]\VXFKLOLMVNLHJRE\áRREDUF]DQLHZLQ]DDSUHFMDFM

NUDMRZHM ZDOXW\ QDSá\ZHP NDSLWDáX ] ]HZQWU] E\á MHGQRF]HQLH ]DFK W L (UyGáHP

ILQDQVRZDQLD]ZL NV]RQ\FKZ\GDWNyZNUDMRZ\FK

4

.

&KLOH XGDáR VL  Z\Mü ] WHJR NU\]\VX NXUV ZDOXWRZ\ MHGQDN SR]RVWDZDá QD R ZLHOH

QL*V]\P SR]LRPH QL* SU]HG NU\]\VHP : QDVW SQ\FK ODWDFK LQIODFMD XWU]\P\ZDáD VL  QD

NLONXQDVWRSURFHQWRZ\P SR]LRPH MHGQDN *DGQH VLá\ SROLW\F]QH SRPQH GRZLDGF]H ]

SU]HV]áRFLQLHSRVWXORZDá\XF]\QLüSROLW\NLDQW\LQIODF\MQHMSULRU\WHWRZ\PFHOHPU]GX

,QQ\P FLHNDZ\P GRZLDGF]HQLHP Z E\á NU\]\V 0HNV\NX Z ODWDFK  :

ODWDFK  0HNV\N VWRVRZDá SROLW\N  VWDáHJR NXUVX ZDOXWRZHJR SRáF]RQ ] SHáQ

Z\PLHQLDOQRFL ZDOXW\ -HGQDN*H Z Z\QLNX Z\ERUyZ Z  U HNVSDQVMD EXG*HWRZD

VSRZRGRZDáD ]HUZDQLH ] GRW\FKF]DVRZ\PL ]DáR*HQLDPL SROLW\NL PRQHWDUQHM :\GDWNL

EXG*HWRZH RVLJQ á\ Z\VRNL SR]LRP FR VSRZRGRZDáR SRZL NV]HQLH VL  GHILF\WX

EXG*HWRZHJR]SR]LRPXZUGRZU:DUXQNL]HZQ WU]QHSDQXMFH

ZJRVSRGDUFHZLDWRZHMWH]QLHE\á\VSU]\MDMFHZ\VRNLHVWRS\SURFHQWRZHRUD]ZLDWRZD

UHFHVMDQLHXáDWZLDá\HNVSDQV\ZQHMSROLW\NLU]GX6\WXDFMDE\áDMHGQDNQLHFRRGPLHQQDQL*

Z &KLOH .UDMRZ\ U\QHN ILQDQVRZ\ E\á SRGGDQ\ FLVáHM UHJXODFML : Z\QLNX NRQWUROL VWyS

SURFHQWRZ\FKVWRS\WHE\á\XMHPQHFRSRZRGRZDáRZ]URVWZ\GDWNyZ-HGQRF]HQLHZDOXWD

E\áDSU]HZDUWRFLRZDQD3RPLPRLQIODFMLNXUVSHVRGRGRODUDE\áVWDá\RGSRáRZ\

UGRSRáRZ\U1DVW SQLHZFLJXGZyFKODWNXUVSHVRGRGRODUDVSDGáRMHGQDN

SU]\ LQIODFML VL JDMFHM MX*  URF]QLH .XUV UHDOQ\ FDá\ F]DV UyVá 2GPLHQQLH QL* Z

SU]\SDGNX&KLOHPHNV\NDVNLHSHVRE\áRZ\PLHQLDOQH

2F]\ZLVWH VWDáR VL  *H Z ZDUXQNDFK XMHPQ\FK UHDOQ\FK VWyS SURFHQWRZ\FK L

SU]HZDUWRFLRZDQLDZDOXW\NUDMRZHMDNW\ZDE\á\WUDQVIHURZDQH]0HNV\NX]DJUDQLF OXE

WH* ]DPLHQLDQLH QD GHSR]\W\ GRODURZH Z EDQNDFK PHNV\NDVNLFK 8G]LDá GHSR]\WyZ

GRODURZ\FK Z ODWDFK  Z]UyVá ]  GR  : URNX  SHVR VWUDFLáR QD

ZDUWRFL1LHVWHW\WRMHGQDNQLHZ\VWDUF]\áR1DSUREOHP\HNRQRPLF]QHQDáR*\á\VL

SUREOHP\ SROLW\F]QH ± WHQGHQFMH SRSXOLVW\F]QH VWDá\ VL  ZLGRF]QH SRMDZLá\ VL  *GDQLD

QDFMRQDOL]DFML EDQNyZ L NRQWURORZDQLD SU]HSá\ZyZ NDSLWDáRZ\FK

5

 %UDN VWDELOQRFL

SROLW\F]QHMRUD]QLHGRVWDWHF]QZRSLQLLZLHOXHNRQRPLVWyZGHSUHFMDFMDSHVRVSRZRGRZDáR

XWUDW SU]H]0HNV\NZL]HUXQNXVROLGQHJRNUHG\WRELRUF\QDU\QNXZLDWRZ\P:HZQ WU]QH

SUREOHP\ VSRZRGRZDá\ RGFL FLH RG ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK (UyGHá NUHG\WRZDQLD .DSLWDá UR]SRF]á

XFLHF]N ]0HNV\NX:OXW\PSHVR]RVWDáR]GHZDOXRZDQHR3RZ\ERUDFKZ

UNROHMQ\U]G]GHZDOXRZDáSHVRREOLVNRSRZWDU]DMFWHQ]DELHJZURNXQDVW SQ\P

6

.

-DNZLGDüSRPLPRRF]\ZLVW\FKUy*QLFREDNU\]\V\Z\ND]XMZLHOHSRGRELHVWZ:

REX SU]\SDGNDFK EH]SRUHGQL SU]\F]\Q NU\]\VX E\áR Z\FRIDQLH VL  NDSLWDáX ]D JUDQLF  L

XWUDWD ]GROQRFL NUHG\WRZHM SU]H] U]G\ MHGQDN SLHUZRWQH SU]\F]\Q\ OH*Dá\ ]DVDGQLF]R

3

R. Dornbusch, I. Goldfajn, R. O. Valdes op. cit., s. 226-227.

4

Ibid., s. 228.

5

Ibid., s. 231-232.

6

Ibid., s. 233.

Kryzysy walutowe i finansowe – wybrane przypadki

3

ZHZQWU] JRVSRGDUHN W\FK SDVWZ :LGDü Z\UD(QLH *H XWU]\P\ZDQLH VWDáHJR NXUVX

ZDOXWRZHJRZZDUXQNDFKLQIODFMLE\áRSLHUZRWQSU]\F]\QW\FKNU\]\VyZ

*áyZQ\RELHNWQDV]\FK]DLQWHUHVRZD±NU\]\VPHNV\NDVNL]U±SRZWDU]DáZ

ZLHOXF] FLDFKGREU]H]QDQ\VFHQDULXV]

2G  U SROLW\N  JRVSRGDUF] 0HNV\NX FHFKRZDáD ]QDF]Q\ ILVNDOL]P SRZD*QH

RJUDQLF]HQLD GRW\F]FH NDSLWDáX ]DJUDQLF]QHJR L ]ZL NV]RQD UROD SDVWZD Z JRVSRGDUFH

:D*Q\P]MDZLVNLHPE\áDQDFMRQDOL]DFMDEDQNyZZU%\áRWRHIHNWHPNU\]\VX]

U]DNWyU\ZLQ ZRGF]XFLXVSRáHF]HVWZDSRQRVLá]DJUDQLF]Q\NDSLWDá6WRSQLRZRMHGQDN

NLHUXQHNSU]HPLDQZSROLW\FHJRVSRGDUF]HMVWDáVL EDUG]LHMOLEHUDOQ\

7

.

W grudniu 1987 r. przedstawiciele pracowników, biznesu i farmerów podpisali „Pakt

6ROLGDUQRFL *RVSRGDUF]HM´ SRSU]HG]RQ\ Ä3DNWHP QD U]HF] 6WDELOQRFL L :]URVWX

*RVSRGDUF]HJR´ 7H GZD SRUR]XPLHQLD PLDá\ ]D ]DGDQLH SRáF]\ü RUWRGRNV\MQD SROLW\N

ILVNDOQLPRQHWDUQ]UHIRUPDPLVWUXNWXUDOQ\PLLSROLW\NNRQWUROLFHQLSáDF

8

.

1LHZWSOLZ\PVXNFHVHPE\áR]PQLHMV]HQLHGáXJXSXEOLF]QHJRRUD]VWDELOL]DFMDNXUVX

SHVR'X*\PVXNFHVHPE\áRXWU]\P\ZDQLHVL Z\VRNLHJRSR]LRPXZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUNL±Z

ODWDFKVWRSDZ]URVWX3.%SU]HZ\*V]DáDRSXQNWXSURFHQWRZHJRVWRS Z]URVWX

OXGQRFL&RFKDUDNWHU\VW\F]QHGODNUDMyZODW\QRDPHU\NDVNLFKZ\VW SRZDáRMHGQRF]HQLH

GX*HUR]ZDUVWZLHQLHGRFKRGyZ±ZODWDFKJyUQHOXGQRFLPLDáRURVQF\RG

ZUGRZUXG]LDáZáF]Q\PGRFKRG]LH&RSy(QLHMRND]DáRVL

EDUG]RZD*QHXG]LDáSURGXNFMLSU]HP\VáRZHMZ3.%VSDGá]SR]LRPXYZUGR

SR]LRPXZUSRGF]DVJG\ZDQDORJLF]Q\PRNUHVLHXG]LDáVHNWRUDILQDQVRZHJRL

QLHUXFKRPRFLZ]UyVá]SR]LRPX3.%GR3.%1LHSRZRG]HQLHP]DNRF]\áDVL

SROLW\NDZVSLHUDQLDHNVSRUWXNWyUHJRZDUWRüVSDGáDZODWDFKR

9

.

6\WXDFMD]DF] áDVL MHGQDN]PLHQLDüQDSU]HáRPLHLUNLHG\WR0HNV\N

]DFLJQá Z\VRNLH SR*\F]NL ]DJUDQLF]QH 6WDQ UDFKXQNX REURWyZ ELH*F\FK SRJRUV]\á VL

JZDáWRZQLH±ZUGHILF\WZ\QRVLá3.%ZURVLJQáSR]LRP3.%:

]QDF]Q\P VWRSQLX QD Z]URVW GHILF\WX UDFKXQNX REURWyZ ELH*F\FK ZSá\Z PLDá\ Z\GDWNL

NRQVXPSF\MQH:SRáRZLHU]DVDGQDRND]DáDVL GHZDOXDFMDSHVR:W\PPRPHQFLH

UH]HUZ\ZDOXWRZHE\á\MHV]F]HQDZ\VRNLPSR]LRPLHSR]LRPGHZDOXDFMLQLHE\áE\Z\VRNLL

QLH Z\ZRáDáE\ SDQLNL QD U\QNDFK ILQDQVRZ\FK 'HZDOXDFMD Z SRáF]HQLX ]H ]PLDQDPL Z

SROLW\FHILVNDOQHMLPRQHWDUQHMSR]ZROLáDE\]PLQLPDOL]RZDüU\]\NRNU\]\VX3U]\MU]\MP\VL

]DWHPZ\GDU]HQLRPSRSU]HG]DMF\FKNU\]\VURNX

5]GPHNV\NDVNLHPLWRZDáZODWDFKG]LHZL üG]LHVLW\FKW]Ztesobonos – obligacje

U]GRZHHPLWRZDQHZSHVRVLLQGHNVRZDQHZGRODUDFK%\á\WRREOLJDFMHNUyWNRWHUPLQRZH

SRSXODUQH QD NUDMRZ\P L PL G]\QDURGRZ\P U\QNX ILQDQVRZ\P 1DSá\Z NDSLWDáX GR

0HNV\NXZUGRJUXGQLDRFHQLDVL QDPOGGRODUyZ

10

.

2SUyF] Z]URVWX ]DGáX*HQLD ]DJUDQLF]QHJR LVWRWQ\ E\á WDN*H Z]URVW ]DGáX*HQLD

SRGPLRWyZNUDMRZ\FK:RNUHVLHRGGRUXG]LDáZDUWRFLNUHG\WyZEDQNRZ\FK

GODNUDMRZHJRVHNWRUDSU\ZDWQHJRZ3.%Z]UyVá]GR:L NV]Rü]W\FKNUHG\WyZ

SU]H]QDF]RQD E\á QD FHOH NRQVXPSF\MQH OXE QD ILQDQVRZDQLH VSHNXODF\MQ\FK LQZHVW\FML

$NFMD NUHG\WRZD NUDMRZ\FK EDQNyZ ILQDQVRZDQD E\áD ]DFLJDQLHP GáXJyZ QD U\QNX

PL G]\QDURGRZ\P=DGáX*HQLH]DJUDQLF]QHEDQNyZPHNV\NDVNLZ]URVáRZRNUHVLHRG
do 1993 r. z poziomu 9 mld do 23 mld dolarów

11

.

7

A. Kildegaard, Foreign Finance and the Collapse of the Mexican Peso, „The Journal of Economic Issues”, Vol.

XXXI No. 4 December 1997, s. 951.

8

D.M. Gould, Mexico’s crisis: Looking back to asses the future, „Business Credit”, February 1996, s. 27.

9

J.M. Cypher, Mexico: Financial fragility or Structural Crisis? „Journal of Economic Issues”, Vol. XXX, No. 2,

June 1996, s. 452.

10

Ibid., s. 453.

11

K. Maskooki, Mexico’s 1994 peso crisis and its aftermath, „European Business Review”, Vol. 14, No. 3,

2002, s. 163-164.

4

Tomasz Puzyrewicz

:D*Q\P F]\QQLNLHP ZSá\ZDMF\P QD JRVSRGDUN  PHNV\NDVN E\á\ GRSá\Z\ L

RGSá\Z\ NDSLWDáX ]DJUDQLF]QHJR 5ROD SRQDGJUDQLF]Q\FK SU]HSá\ZyZ NDSLWDáRZ\FK Z

JRVSRGDUFH 0HNV\NX ]DF] áD V]F]HJyOQLH V]\ENR URVQü Z ODWDFK RVLHPG]LHVLW\FK 3R

NU\]\VLH  U SRMDZLá VL  ]QDF]F\ RGSá\Z NDSLWDáX ]DJUD QLF]HJR MHGQDN SURJUDP
stabilizacji oraz program

%UDG\¶HJRVSRZRGRZDá\SRQRZQ\QDSá\ZNDSLWDáXNWyU\WUZDáRG

NRFD ODW RVLHPG]LHVLW\FK GR NU\]\VX  U .U\]\V VSRZRGRZDá NROHMQ IDO  RGSá\ZX

NDSLWDáX]DJUDQLF]QHJR]JRVSRGDUNLPHNV\NDVNLHM

12

.

.ROHMQ\P ZD*Q\P F]\QQLNLHP E\áR VWRSQLRZH QDUDVWDQLH NU\]\VX Z VHNWRU]H

EDQNRZ\P8G]LDáQLHREVáXJLZDQ\FKNUHG\WyZZSRUWIHOXEDQNyZZ]UyVáRGF]HUZFDU
do grudnia 1994 r. z poziomu 1,8% do 8%. W grudniu 1994 r. przeterminowane kredyty

VWDQRZLá\ MX*  IXQGXV]\ ZáDVQ\FK EDQNyZ

13

 1DOH*\ GRGDü *H Z VSUDZR]GDQLDFK

ILQDQVRZ\FK SRGDZDQR MHG\QLH ZDUWRü QLHVSáDFRQ\FK RGVHWHN RG SU]HWHUPLQRZDQ\FK

NUHG\WyZ FR GDZDáR IDáV]\Z\ ]E\W RSW\PLVW\F]Q\ REUD] V\WXDFML Z VHNWRU]H EDQNRZ\P

.ROHMQ\PQLHNRU]\VWQ\P]MDZLVNLHPZVHNWRU]HEDQNRZ\PE\áR]QDF]QH]DGáX*HQLHVHNWRUD

ZREHF ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK NUHG\WRGDZFyZ FR ZL FHM ]DGáX*HQLH Z SU]HZD*DMFHM F] FL ]

WHUPLQHP SáDWQRFL Z  U 2]QDF]DáR WR RSDUFLH VL  EDQNyZ QD NUyWNRWHUPLQRZ\P
kapitale zagranicznym

14

 3RGVXPRZXMF PHNV\NDVNLH EDQNL SR VWURQLH SDV\ZyZ PLDá\

NUyWNRWHUPLQRZH ZLHU]\WHOQRFL Z ZDOXWDFK ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK ZREHF ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK

LQZHVWRUyZDSRVWURQLHDNW\ZyZSU]HWHUPLQRZDQHZLHU]\WHOQRFL1LHPDZWSOLZRFL*H

ZWDNLHMV\WXDFMLNU\]\VZVHNWRU]HEDQNRZ\PE\áZ]DVDG]LHQLHXQLNQLRQ\

:PL G]\F]DVLHVSDGDá\RV]F] GQRFLNUDMRZH±]SR]LRPX3.%ZUGR

3.%ZU2VWUDZDONDNRQNXUHQF\MQDSRZRGRZDáD]ZL NV]DQLHDNFMLNUHG\WRZHMZ

]DNUHVLHNUHG\WyZNRQVXPHQFNLFKLPLHV]NDQLRZ\FKFRZGáX*V]\PRNUHVLHGRSURZDG]LáR

GR VSDGNX MDNRFL SRUWIHOD NUHG\WRZHJR EDQNyZ :]URVW DNFML NUHG\WRZHM GRW\F]\á Z

V]F]HJyOQRFL NUHG\WyZ NRQVXPSF\MQ\FK NUHG\WyZ KLSRWHF]Q\FK VDPRFKRGRZ\FK RUD]

NUHG\WyZXG]LHODQ\FKSU]HGVL ELRUVWZRPZFHOXILQDQVRZDQLDLQZHVW\FMLZQLHUXFKRPRFLL

EXGRZQLFWZR Z W\P ]DNUHVLH V]F]HJyOQLH GX*\ XG]LDá PLDá\ NUHG\W\ ILQDQVXMFH

VSHNXODF\MQHG]LDáDQLDQDU\QNXEXG\QNyZELXURZ\FKLFHQWUyZKDQGORZ\FK

15

. Wzrost akcji

NUHG\WRZHMQLHE\á]DWHP]ZL]DQ\]HZ]URVWHPSURGXNFMLSU]HP\VáRZHM0R*QDVWZLHUG]Lü

*HZW\PZ]JO G]LHVSHáQLRQH]RVWDá\NODV\F]QHZDUXQNLNU\]\VXILQDQVRZHJR

.LHG\NU\]\VZVHNWRU]HEDQNRZ\PVWDáVL Z\UD(QLHZLGRF]Q\U]GSRGMáG]LDáDQLD

naprawcze i szeroki program pomocowy dla sektora bankowego. Niestety, proces ten

VNXWNRZDá JáRZQLH ÄXVSRáHF]QLHQLHP´ VWUDW VHNWRUD EDQNRZHJR

16

 8SDGáH EDQNL ]RVWDá\

SU]HM WH SU]H] IXQGXV] JZDUDQF\MQ\ )XQGXV] WHQ SU]HMá  EDQNyZ ] NWyU\FK  E\áR

VSU\ZDW\]RZDQ\FKZFLJXSRSU]HGQLFKSDUXODW3RQDGWRIXQGXV]VNXSRZDáQLHREVáXJLZDQH

NU\W\EDQNyZNRPHUF\MQ\FK)XQGXV]VSU]HGDáQDVW SQLHF] üSU]HM W\FKEDQNyZEDQNRP

]DJUDQLF]Q\P 5]G VWZRU]\á WDN*H IXQGXV] 352&$37( PDMF\ QD FHOX GRNDSLWDOL]RZDü

EDQNL NUDMRZH : UDPDFK SURJUDPX QDSUDZF]HJR U]G ]UHVWUXNWXU\]RZDá  SRUWIHOD

NUHG\WRZHJR EDQNyZ Z\PLHQLDMF MH QD ZáDVQH REOLJDFMH -HGQRF]HQLH GáX*QLF\ PRJOL

UR]áR*\ü VSáDW  NUHG\WyZ QD GáX*V]\ F]DV : UH]XOWDFLH W\FK G]LDáD U]G PHNV\NDVNL

GRSURZDG]Lá GR F] FLRZHM GHQDFMRQDOL]DFML VSU\ZDW\]RZDQHJR SDU  ODW ZF]HQLHM VHNWRUD
bankowego

17

.

:LGDü]DWHPZ\UD(QLH*H]áDSROLW\NDQDG]RUXEDQNRZHJRSRáF]RQD]HZLGHQWQ\PL

12

M. Dabos, V. H. Juan-Ramon, Real Exchange Rate Response to

&DSLWDá Flows in Mexico: An Empirical

Analysis, IMF Working Paper, No. 108, 2000, s. 4.

13

A. Kidegaard, Foreign Finance...., ed. cit., s. 959.

14

J.M. Cypher, Mexico: Financial fragility.... ed. cit., s. 454.

15

Ibid., s. 456.

16

Ibid, s. 457.

17

Ibid., s. 458-459.

Kryzysy walutowe i finansowe – wybrane przypadki

5

Eá GDPL Z SROLW\FH NUHG\WRZHM EDQNyZ Z V]F]HJyOQRFL GRW\F]F\PL QLHZáDFLZHM RFHQ\

U\]\NDNUHG\WRZHJRPXVLDá\GRSURZDG]LüGRNU\]\VXZDOXWRZHJR-DNF] VWRG]LHMHVL Z

GRELHJOREDOL]DFMLU\QNyZILQDQVRZ\FKV\WXDFMDWDGREU]HSRWZLHUG]DáDWH] RSU\ZDW\]DFML

]\VNyZLQDFMRQDOL]DFMLVWUDWZSU]\SDGNXUy*QHJRURG]DMXNU\]\VyZ

.U\]\VZVHNWRU]HEDQNRZ\PQLHE\áQLHVWHW\MHG\Q\PQLHNRU]\VWQ\P]MDZLVNLHPZ

JRVSRGDUFH PHNV\NDVNLHM Z W\P F]DVLH 5yZQRF]HQLH SRJDUV]DáD VL  V\WXDFMD

PDNURHNRQRPLF]QDNUDMX:UyüP\]DWHPGRZ\GDU]HSRSU]HG]DMF\FKNU\]\VZDOXWRZ\]
1994 r.

:UURVáR]DGáX*HQLH0HNV\NX]W\WXáXHPLVMLSDSLHUyZU]GRZ\FKQDU\QNDFK

]DJUDQLF]Q\FK : W\P URNX ]DJUDQLF]QH IXQGXV]H LQZHVW\F\MQH VNáRQLá\ 0HNV\N GR

]ZL NV]RQHM HPLVML tesobonos indeksowanych do dolara zamiast indeksowanych w peso
obligacji (zwanych

&HWHV)XQGXV]HERMNRWRZDá\DXNFMHREOLJDFMLLQGHNVRZDQ\FKZSHVRFR

VSRZRGRZDáRJZDáWRZQ\VNRNRSURFHQWRZDQLDL]DSDüQDU\QNXDNFML

18

.

.U]\ZDGRFKRGRZRFLRND]DáDVL GRüVWURPDZUH]XOWDFLHU]GFKFFUHGXNRZDü

NRV]W\ REVáXJL GáXJX SXEOLF]QHJR HPLWRZDá SDSLHU\ NUyWNRWHUPLQRZH : UH]XOWDFLH UHGQL

RNUHVGRZ\NXSXSDSLHUyZU]GRZ\FKZ U ]QDF]QLH VL VNUyFLá 7DND SROLW\ND U]GX

Z\QLNDáD ] ]DáR*HQLD ]H ]PLDQ\ QD U\QNX VWyS SURFHQWRZ\FK V SU]HMFLRZH L Z RNUHVLH

QDMZ\*HMURNXXGDVL ]PLHQLüVWUXNWXU F]DVRZGáXJXSXEOLF]QHJR3RZRGRZDáRWRMHGQDN

U\]\NR GZRMDNLHJR URG]DMX 3R SLHUZV]H ]PLDQ\ WH PRJá\ QLH E\ü NUyWNRRNUHVRZH FR

R]QDF]DáRE\]HNRQLHF]QHE GZGáX*V]\PRNUHVLH]PLDQ\ZUHDOQ\FKZ\GDWNDFKSDVWZD

DE\]UyZQ\ZDüHZHQWXDOQHZ\*V]HNRV]W\REVáXJLGáXJXSXEOLF]QHJR3RGUXJLHHPLWRZDQLH

SDSLHUyZ NUyWNRWHUPLQRZ\FK ]ZL NV]DáR QLHEH]SLHF]HVWZR ]H LQZHVWRU]\ ]DJUDQLF]QL Z

V\WXDFML SHZQ\FK ]DZLURZD QD U\QNX E G VNáRQQL ]DVWRSRZDü UHILQDQVRZDQLH

PHNV\NDVNLHJRGáXJXSXEOLF]QHJR

19

.

: Z\QLNX QDFLVNyZ IXQGXV]\ LQZHVW\F\MQ\FK 0HNV\N ]PLHQLá VWUXNWXU  HPLVML

SDSLHUyZU]GRZ\FK'RPLQXMFURO ]DF] á\RGJU\ZDüLQGHNVRZDQHZGRODUDFKREOLJDFMH

WHVRERQRV :DUWRü LFK HPLVML ] SR]LRPX  POG GRODUyZ Z QD SRF]WNX  U RVLJQ áD

ZDUWRü  POG GRODUyZ Z JUXGQLX  U

20

W tym czasie

WHVRERQRV VSRWNDá\ VL  ]

HQWX]MDVW\F]Q\PSU]\M FLHPQDPL G]\QDURGRZ\FKU\QNDFKILQDQVRZ\FK,QZHVWRU]\VG]LOL

]HHPLVMDSDSLHUyZU]GRZ\FKLQGHNVRZDQ\FKZGRODUDFKR]QDF]D*HU]GDEVROXWQLHQLHPD

]DPLDUX Z SU]\V]áRFL GRNRQ\ZDü GHZDOXDFML SHVR -DN PLDáR VL  MHGQDN ZNUyWFH RND]Dü
entuzjazm z inwestorów w stosunku do

WHVRERQRV ZNUyWFH PLDá ]QLNQü Z GUDPDW\F]Q\FK

RNROLF]QRFLDFK

: W\P F]DVLH ZáDG]H 0HNV\NX XWU]\P\ZDá\ *H SHVR QLH MHVW SU]HZDUWRFLRZDQH

3U]\]QDZDQRRF]\ZLFLH]HQDVWSLáUHDOQDDSUHFMDFMDSHVRWáXPDF]RQRWRMHGQDNW\P]HZ

Z\QLNX Z]URVWX SURGXNFML L HIHNW\ZQRFL QDVWSLá Z]URVW SáDF L FHQ Z SU]HOLF]HQLX QD
dolary

21

.

7DNLH SRMPRZDQLH VSUDZ\ E\áR MHGQDN Eá GQH 6WDáR VL  WR RF]\ZLVWH SR ]DáDPDQLX

ZDUWRFLSHVRMHGQDNRSU]HZDUWRFLRZDQLXSHVRPR*QDE\áRZQLRVNRZDüMX*ZF]HQLHM:

W\PF]DVLHZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\Z0HNV\NXE\áMX*GRüQLVNLZ\GDWNLEXG*HWRZHURVá\QLH

E\áR ZL F F]\QQLNyZ XVSUDZLHGOLZLDMF\FK UHDOQ DSUHFMDFM  ZDOXW\ &R ZL FHM SRGM WD

SU]H] 0HNV\N ZLHORVWURQQD OLEHUDOL]DFMD KDQGOX Z\PDJDáD UDF]HM GHSUHFMDFML ZDOXW\ FKFF

]DFKRZDüNRQNXUHQF\MQRü

22

.

'RGDWNRZ\PIDNWHP]ZL NV]DMF\PU\]\NRNU\]\VXE\áDGHVWDELOL]DFMDSROLW\F]QDL

18

A. Kielkegaard, Foreign Finance..., ed. cit., s. 953.

19

J. Sachs, A. Tornell, A. Velasco, The collapse of the Mexican peso: what have we learned?, „Economic

Policy”, ed. cit., s. 31.

20

Ibid., s. 31.

21

R. Dornbusch, I. Goldfajn, R. O. Valdes, Currency Crisis and Collapses, ed. cit., s. 241.

22

Ibid., s. 240.

6

Tomasz Puzyrewicz

NDPSDQLD Z\ERUF]D FR PLDáR PLHMVFH SRG NRQLHF  U .DPSDQLD Z\ERUF]D MDN PR*QD

E\áRRF]HNLZDüVSRZRGRZDáDWDN*HZ]URVWZ\GDWNyZEXG*HWRZ\FK

: NRFX Z JUXGQLX  U GRV]áR GR RF]HNLZDQHM MX* ZWHG\ GHZDOXDFML SHVR R

 -DN PR*QD E\áR SU]HZLG]LHü VSRZRGRZDáD RQD PDVRZD XFLHF]N  LQZHVWRUyZ L

Z\Sá\ZNDSLWDáyZ1DU\QNXILQDQVRZ\PZ0HNV\NXSRMDZLáDVL SDQLND'RGDWNRZRZLHOX

LQZHVWRUyZSRF]XáRVL RV]XNDQ\FKSU]H]U]GSU]H]GáXJLF]DV]DSHZQLDMF\*HQLHPR*H

E\ü PRZ\ R VSDGNX ZDUWRFL SHVR 3RJá ELáR WR MHV]F]H SDQLN  L XFLHF]N  LQZHVWRUyZ ]
rynku

23

 .RQLHF]QD RND]DáD VL  ]DNURMRQD QD V]HURN VNDO  NRV]WRZQD DNFMD SRPRF\

SURZDG]RQDSU]H]0L G]\QDURGRZ\)XQGXV]:DOXWRZ\L6WDQ\=MHGQRF]RQH

1DOH*\WXGRGDü*HNUDFKZ0HNV\NXQLHE\áSURJQR]RZDQ\SU]H]ZLHOXLQZHVWRUyZ

LQVW\WXFMRQDOQ\FKZ6WDQDFK=MHGQRF]RQ\FK0HNV\NWDN*HMHV]F]HZUE\áMHGQ\P]

XOXELRQ\FK NUDMyZ DPHU\NDVNLFK LQZHVWRUyZ ,FK VWRVXQNX GR 0HNV\NX QLH E\á Z VWDQLH

]PLHQLüDQLZ\VRNLGHILF\WEXG*HWRZ\DQLGHVWDELOL]DFMDSROLW\F]QDSRZVWDQLHZChiapas,

PRUGHUVWZDQDWOHSROLW\F]Q\P-DNSRZLHG]LDáRW\PMHGHQ]DQDOLW\NyZ]Morgan Stanley,

ÄE G]LHWR]DSLVDQHMDNRMHGQD]QDMZL NV]\FKVSHNXODF\MQ\FKSRP\áHN¶

24

.

=DVWDQyZP\VL ]DWHPMDNLHE\á\U]HF]\ZLVWHSU]\F]\Q\NU\]\VXPHNV\NDVNLHJR]

 U .U\]\V WHQ PR*QD SRWUDNWRZDü MDNR VDPRVSHáQLDMF VL  SU]HSRZLHGQL  3RPLPR

]DSHZQLHSROLW\NyZGHZDOXDFMLPR*QDE\áRZURF]HNLZDüDSDQLNDZWDNLHMV\WXDFML

PXVLDáDZNRFXQDVWSLü:LQQ\VSRVyENU\]\VPR*QDZ\MDQLDüQDVW SXMFR'HZDOXDFMD

L SDQLND QD U\QNDFK E\á\ Z SHZQ\P VHQVLH RGG]LHOQ\PL Z\GDU]HQLDPL =JRGQLH ] W\P

UR]XPRZDQLHP GHZDOXDFMD SHVR MHG\QLH VSURZRNRZDáD QLHXFKURQQ SDQLN  'HZDOXDFMD

E\áDE\ ]DWHP VSRVREHP QD REQL*HQLH NRV]WyZ REVáXJL ]DGáX*HQLD MHGQDN VSRZRGRZDáD

]PLDQ RF]HNLZDXF]HVWQLNyZU\QNXLZNRQVHNZHQFMLXFLHF]N NDSLWDáyZ3DQLNDLRGSá\Z

NDSLWDáyZ VSRZRGRZDá QLHPR*QRü UHILQDQVRZDQLD SU]H] U]G VZRMHJR ]DGáX*HQLD D Z

NRQVHNZHQFMLXWUDW Sá\QQRFL2EOLJDFMHU]GRZHZW\PIDZRU\]RZDQHSU]H]LQZHVWRUyZ

WHVRERQRV SU]HVWDá\ E\ü VSáDFDQH FR Z NRQVHNZHQFML SRJá ELáR VSDGHN ZDUWRFL SHVR L

RGSá\Z NDSLWDáyZ .OXF]RZ\P SRZRGHP SDQLNL E\á WX ]DWHP QLH GHZDOXDFMD D EDUDN

Sá\QQRFLU]GXPHNV\NDVNLHJR

25

.

.U\]\V PHNV\NDVNL SRND]XMH WDN*H *H Z ZDUXQNDFK JOREDOL]DFML SU]HSá\ZyZ

NDSLWDáRZ\FK QDZHW PDáH ]DNáyFHQLD Z JRVSRGDUFH GDQHJR NUDMX PRJ SRZRGRZDü

]DáDPDQLH VL  NXUVX ZDOXWRZHJR V]F]HJyOQLH Z ZDUXQNDFK RJUDQLF]RQ\FK UH]HUZ

ZDOXWRZ\FK2F]HNLZDQLDU\QNX]H]DFKRZDQLHZ\PLHQLDOQRFLNUDMRZHMZDOXW\PR*HE\ü

QLHPR*OLZHSRZRGXMHVDPR]VLHELH]DáDPDQLXVL NXUVXZDOXWRZHJR

26

.

%á GQH MHVW ]DWHP VWZLHUG]HQLH ]H SU]\F]\Q NU\]\VX PHNV\NDVNLHJR  QDOH*\

XSDWU\ZDüMHG\QLH Z  Eá GQHM SROLW\FH PDNURHNRQRPLF]QHM RUD] Z QLHZáDFLZ\P QDG]RU]H

EDQNRZ\P 3U]\F]\Q\ WH OH*Dá\ Já ELHM ± Z VIHU]H PLNURHNRQRPLF]QHM =áD V\WXDFMD

SU]HGVL ELRUVWZ ILQDQVRZ\FK QDGPLHUQLH NUHG\WDPL SU]HáR*\áD VL  QD NU\]\V EDQNRZ\

VWDQRZLF\MHGHQ]HOHPHQWyZNU\]\VXILQDQVRZHJR

27

.

*RVSRGDUND0HNV\NXSRF]WNRZRUR]ZLMDMFDVL ZGRüV]\ENLPWHPSLHQLHE\á

ZROQD RG V]HUHJX Eá GyZ FKDUDNWHU\VW\F]Q\FK GOD U\QNyZ ZVFKRG]F\FK %á G\ WH PR*QD

QD]ZDüZSHZQ\PVHQVLHÄNODV\F]Q\PL´EUDNSU]HMU]\VWHJRV\VWHPXEDQNRZHJRQLHSHáQD
informacja o sytuacji w sektorze bankowym, nadmierna akcja kredytowa banków, nadmierne

NUHG\WRZDQLH VSHNXODF\MQ\FK LQZHVW\FML QD U\QNX QLHUXFKRPRFL QLH SU]HFLZG]LDáDQLH

23

R. Dornbusch, I. Goldfajn, R. O. Valdes op. cit., s. 241.

24

D. Galant, Why Wall Street missed Mexico, „Institutional Investor”, May 1995.

25

J. Sachs, A. Tornell, A. Velasco, The collapse of the Mexican peso: what have we learned?, “Economic

Policy” Issue22, April 1996, s. 17.

26

Ch. W. Calomiris, Lessons from the Tequila Crisis for successful financial liberalization, ”Journal of Banking

& Finance”, No. 23, 1999, s. 1458.

27

E. Kalter, A. Ribas, The 1994 Mexican Economic Crisis: The Role of Goverment Expenditures and Relative

Prices, IMF Working Paper, No. 160, 1999, s. 16.

Kryzysy walutowe i finansowe – wybrane przypadki

7

SUREOHPRZLSU]HZDUWRFLRZDQLDZDOXW\NUDMRZHM.U\]\VPHNV\NDVNLZQLyVáSHZQQRZD

ZDUWRü ± ZWHG\ WR SRMDZLá VL  MHGQRF]HQLH NU\]\V ZDOXWRZ\ L NU\]\V Z V\VWHPLH

EDQNRZ\P )DOD NU\]\VyZ ZUyG D]MDW\FNLFK NU\]\VyZ SRND]DáD ZNUyWFH *H WDNLH

ZVSyáZ\VW SRZDQLH W\FK GZyFK NU\]\VyZ VWDMH VL  FHFK FKDUDNWHU\VW\F]Q ZVSyáF]HVQHM

JRVSRGDUNLZLDWRZHM

2. Kryzys azjatycki

.U\]\V D]MDW\FNL VWDQRZLá ZL NV]H ]DVNRF]HQLH QL* NU\]\V PHNV\NDVNL L SR]RVWDáH

NU\]\V\SRáXGQLRZRDPHU\NDVNLH'RWNQáZV]DNQLHWUDG\F\MQLHQLHVWDELOQ\FKSROLW\F]QLHL

HNRQRPLF]QH NUDMyZ $PHU\NL àDFLVNLHM DOH ÄJZLD]G\´ ZLDWRZHM HNRQRPLL Z]RURZ\FK

XF]QLyZ OHNFML XG]LHODQ\FK SU]H] JOREDOQ JRVSRGDUN  6SUyEXMP\ ]DWHP SU]\MU]Hü VL

SU]HELHJRZLWHJRNU\]\VXXSRV]F]HJyOQ\FKD]MDW\FNLFKW\JU\VyZDE\PyFZ\áRZLüSHZQH

ZVSyOQHPHFKDQL]P\-HGQ]JáyZQ\FKFHFKJRVSRGDUHNNUDMyZ3RáXGQLRZHM$]MLE\áDGX*D

]DOH*QRüRGNDSLWDáX]DJUDQLF]QHJR

.U\]\V D]MDW\FNL QDMPRFQLHM GDá VL  RGF]Xü Z ,QGRQH]ML =QDF]HQLH NU\]\VX

LQGRQH]\MVNLHJR GOD JRVSRGDUNL ZLDWRZHM E\áR W\P ZL NV]H *H GR SRáRZ\ ODW

G]LHZL üG]LHVLW\FKNUDMWHQPyJáVáX*\ü]DSU]\NáDGV]\ENLHJRL]UyZQRZD*RQHJRUR]ZRMX

RGNUDMX]DFRIDQHJROH*FHJRQDREU]H*DFKF\ZLOL]RZDQHJRZLDWDGRUDQJLORNDOQHMSRW JL

JRVSRGDUF]HM3U]H]ODWDVWRSDZ]URVWX3.%XWU]\P\ZDáDVL QDSR]LRPLHRNDZODWDFK

 RVLJQ áD ZDUWRü SRQDG  URF]QLH 7HQ SR]\W\ZQ\ REUD] LQGRQH]\MVNLHM

JRVSRGDUNLQDOH*\MHGQDNX]XSHáQLüRSDU ]MDZLVNQLHNRU]\VWQLHZLDGF]F\FKRJRVSRGDUFH

WHJR NUDMX *RVSRGDUND Z ]QDF]QHM PLHU]H RSDUWD E\áD QD ILQDQVRZDQLX SU]H]

NUyWNRWHUPLQRZHSR*\F]NL]DJUDQLF]QHFRPRJáRVWDQRZLüÄSDVWUDQVPLV\MQ\´QLHVWDELOQRFL

JRVSRGDUNL ZLDWRZHM GR JRVSRGDUNL LQGRQH]\MVNLHM NUDMRZ\ V\VWHP ILQDQVRZ\ E\á VáDER

UR]ZLQL W\ V\VWHP JRVSRGDUNL RSLV\ZDQ\ E\á MDNR Z\VRFH ]DOH*Q\ RG XNáDGyZ EL]QHVX ]

ZáDG]DPLSDVWZRZ\PLpatrimonial, crony FDSLWDOLVPLQVW\WXFMHGHPRNUDW\F]QHE\á\GRü

VáDERUR]ZLQL WH

28

.

:RNUHVLHEH]SRUHGQLRSRSU]HG]DMF\PNU\]\VILQDQVRZ\WMZURNX,QGRQH]MD

PLDáDGHILF\WSáDWQLF]\QDSR]LRPLHQDGZ\*NDEXG*HWRZDZ\QRVLáD3.%5DSRUW

0L G]\QDURGRZHJR )XQGXV]X :DOXWRZHJR ZVND]\ZDá QD ÄUR]VGQ SROLW\N

PDNURHNRQRPLF]Q Z\VRNLH LQZHVW\FMH L VWRS\ RV]F] GQRFL L UHIRUP\ PDMFH QD FHOX

OLEHUDOL]DFM  U\QNyZ´

29

 =DNUHV ZDKD NXUVRZ\FK UXSLL ]RVWDá Z  U GZXNURWQLH

SRV]HU]RQ\ZFHOXZ\WZRU]HQLD OHSV]\FK PHFKDQL]PyZ GRVWRVRZDZF]\FK GR ]PLHQLDMFHM

VL V\WXDFMLQDPL G]\QDURGRZ\FKU\QNDFKILQDQVRZ\FK

30

.

3LHUZV]H R]QDNL *H ZDOXWD NUDMRZD MHVW ]DJUR*RQD SRMDZLá\ VL  Z VLHUSQLX  U

5]G ]DUHDJRZDá EDUG]R P V]\ENR ± NUyWNRWHUPLQRZH VWRS\ SURFHQWRZDQH ]RVWDá\

SRGQLHVLRQH SRGM WR LQWHUZHQFMH QD U\QNX ZDOXWRZ\P 1LHVWHW\ SHZQH IDNW\ QLHSRNRMFR

SU]\SRPLQDá\V\WXDFM 0HNV\NX&DáNRZLW\SU\ZDWQ\GáXJ]DJUDQLF]Q\,QGRQH]MLZ\QRVLáZ

W\PF]DVLHPLOLDUGyZGRODUyZFRVWDQRZLáR3.%&RZL FHMPLOLDUG\GRODUyZ

VWDQRZLáRGáXJRWHUPLQLHZ\PDJDOQRFLPQLHMV]HMQL*MHGHQURN%DQNFHQWUDOQ\QLHW\ONRQLH

SU]HFLZG]LDáDá WDNLHPX ]DGáX*DQLX SRGPLRWyZ SU\ZDWQ\FK OHF] QDZHW QLH E\á Z SHáQL

ZLDGRP\WDNLHMZLHONRFLLVWUXNWXU\GáXJXGDQHRGáXJX]RVWDá\SU]HGVWDZLRQHSU]H]%DQN

28

J. Pincus, R. Ramli, Indonesia: from showcase to basket case, „Cambridge Journal of Economics”, No. 2,

1998. S. 724.

29

D. Wesel, D. McDermott, G. Ip, Money trail: who ruptured the rupiah?, „Asian Wall Street Journal”

31.12.1997., za: J. Pincus, R. Ramli, Indonesia: from showcase to basket case, „Cambridge Journal of
Economics”, No. 2, 1998. S. 725.

30

J. Pincus, R. Ramli, Indonesia: from showcase to basket case, ed. cit., s. 725.

8

Tomasz Puzyrewicz

5R]OLF]H0L G]\QDURGRZ\FK

31

.

3RF]WHN NU\]\VX D]MDW\FNLHJR WR OLSLHF  U DOH SURORJLHP GR QLHJR E\á\ DWDNL

spekulacyjne na tajlandzkiego

EDKWDZU6]F]\WW\FKDWDNyZQDVWSLáPDMDU

NLHG\WRLQGHNVJLHáG\Z%DQJNRNXVWUDFLáD:NUyWFHSRWHPWDMODQG]NLPLQLVWHUILQDQVyZ

]áR*\áUH]\JQDFM DLQGHNVJLHáGRZ\VSDGáZFLJXMHGQHJRGQLDR7HIDNW\VSUDZLá\

*H]DJUDQLF]QHIXQGXV]H]DF] á\VL Z\FRI\ZDü]7DMODQGLLFRVSRZRGRZDáRGDOV]\VSDGHN

NXUVXZDOXWRZHJR=ELHJáRVL WRZF]DVLH]GDW]DSU]HVWDQLDREURQ\NXUVXmalezyjskiego

ULQJLWWD 1LHVWDELOQRü U\QNyZ ZDOXWRZ\FK Z NUDMDFK GRWNQL W\FK NU\]\VHP URVáD

JZDáWRZQLH GRGDWNRZR SRJá ELDQD SU]H] QLHVWDELOQRü SROLW\F]Q ZLGDü WX Z\UD(QLH

SRGRELHVWZR]NU\]\VHPPHNV\NDVNLP:VLHUSQLXPUNU\]\VGRVL JQá,QGRQH]M 

ZSD(G]LHUQLNXGRWDUáQD7DMZDQ

32

.

=DF]á URVQü SRS\W QD GRODUD : REDZLH SU]HG VSDGNLHP NXUVX UXSLL SRGPLRW\

NUDMRZH ]DF] á\ ]DP\NDü VZRMH SR]\FMH ZDOXWRZH .UHG\W\ ZDOXWRZH ]DF] á\ E\ü WUXGQR

GRVW SQH QD U\QNX LQGRQH]\MVNLP L SU]HGVL ELRUVWZD SU]\]Z\F]DMRQH GR ILQDQVRZDQLD

SU]HGVL Z]L ü NUHG\WHP ZDOXWRZ\P ZSDGá\ Z NáRSRW\ 3RMDZLá\ VL  OLF]QH EDQNUXFWZD

3RJRUV]\áR WR W\P VDP\P L WDN QLH QDMOHSV]D MDNRü SRUWIHOD NUHG\WRZHJR

33

 -HGQRF]HQLH

URVá\VWRS\SURFHQWRZHFRGRGDWNRZRSRJDUV]DáRV\WXDFM NUHG\WRELRUFyZDFR]DW\PLG]LH

EDQNyZ3á\QQRüEDQNyZ]RVWDáDSRZD*QLH]DJUR*RQD$E\WHPXSU]HFLZG]LDáDüZRNUHVLH

RGOLSFDUGRVW\F]QLDUZ\HPLWRZDQRPOGUXSLL(NVSDQVMDPRQHWDUQDRND]DáD

VL  SU]HGVL Z]L FLHP QLHXGDQ\P ± VSRZRGRZDáD GDOV] ]Z\*N  VWR SURFHQWRZ\FK FR

SRJRUV]\áRV\WXDFM NUHG\WRELRUFyZDOHQLHXUDWRZDáDVHNWRUDEDQNRZHJR.XUVUXSLLVSDGáL

U]G ,QGRQH]ML E\á ]PXV]RQ\ ZH]ZDü GR SRPRF\ 0L G]\QDURGRZ\ )XQGXV] :DOXWRZ\

:GUR*RQR SODQ QDSUDZF]\ ]DNáDGDMF\ XWU]\PDQLH QDGZ\*NL EXG*HWRZHM V]HUHJ UHIRUP

JRVSRGDUF]\FKLRVáDELHQLHSR]\FMLPRQRSROL]ZL]DQ\FK]NU JDPLU]G]F\PL:UDPDFK

SURJUDPXQDSUDZF]HJR]DPNQL WREDQNyZ1LHZV]\VWNLHUHIRUP\ZHV]á\Z*\FLH±QD

VNXWHNQDFLVNyZSROLW\F]Q\FKQLHQDUXV]RQRVWUXNWXU\PRQRSROL]ZL]DQ\FK]QDMZ\*V]\PL

NU JDPLZáDG]\%UDNUHIRUPZVIHU]HUHDOQHMV]\ENRVSRZRGRZDáSRJá ELHQLHNU\]\VX:

VW\F]QLXUUXSLDSRUD]NROHMQ\ Z JZDáWRZQ\ VSRVyE VWUDFLáD QD ZDUWRFL .RQLHF]QH

E\áR SRGSLVDQLH QRZ\FK SRUR]XPLH ] 0L G]\QDURGRZ\P )XQGXV]HP :DOXWRZ\P

=DáR*HQLD ILVNDOQH ]RVWDá\ ]áDJRG]RQH OHF] 0): FLJOH NáDGá JáyZQ\ QDFLVN QD RVWU

SROLW\N ILVNDOQ:FLJXURNXSRNU\]\VLHNXUVUXSLLXWU]\P\ZDáVL QDSR]LRPLHUHGQLRR

QL*SU]HGNU\]\VHPDLQIODFMDZURVLJQ áDSR]LRP

34

.

3U]\NáDG,QGRQH]MLZ\UD(QLHSRND]XMHVNXWNLJZDáWRZQHMGHUHJXODFMLNUDMRZHJRU\QNX

ILQDQVRZHJR L SHáQHM RWZDUWRFL QD WUDQVQDURGRZH SU]HSá\Z\ NDSLWDáRZH 1DOH*\ MHGQDN

SRGNUHOLü *H GHUHJXODFMD V\WHPX ILQDQVRZHJR QLH V]áD Z SDU]H ] G]LDáDQLDPL QD U]HF]

]ZL NV]HQLD VWRSQLD NRQNXUHQFML Z VIHU]H UHDOQHM : RNUHVLH UHIRUP JRVSRGDUF]\FK

NRQFHQWURZDQR VL  QD UHIRUPRZDQLX V\VWHPX EDQNRZHJR QLH GRVWU]HJDMF OXE UDF]HM QLH

FKFF GRVWU]HF SRWHQFMDOQ\FK SUREOHPyZ Z\QLNDMF\FK ] PRQRSROLVW\F]QHM SR]\FML ZLHOX

SU]HGVL ELRUVWZ NUDMRZ\FK %\áR WR Z\QLNLHP SRZL]D SRPL G]\ VIHU EL]QHVX L VIHU

SROLW\NL RUD] VáDEHJR UR]ZRMX LQVW\WXFML GHPRNUDW\F]Q\FK /LEHUDOQD SROLW\ND VWRVRZDQD Z

VHNWRU]H ILQDQVRZ\P SRáF]RQD E\áD ] SURWHNFMRQLVW\F]Q VZRLFLH ÄQDFMRQDOLVW\F]Q

HNRQRPLF]QLH´SROLW\NZLQQ\FKVIHUDFKJRVSRGDUNL:\VRNLH VWRS\ SURFHQWRZH QDU\QNX

NUDMRZ\PV]\ENRGRSURZDG]Lá\ZZDUXQNDFKRWZDUWRFLV\VWHPXILQDQVRZHJRGRZLHONLHJR

]DGáX*HQLDZZDOXWDFKREF\FK'HUHJXODFMDU\QNyZILQDQVRZ\FKSURZDG]LáDGRV\WXDFMLZ

NWyUHMU]GSR]EDZLRQ\E\áZLHOXQDU] G]LSROLW\NLJRVSRGDUF]HM&RZL FHMVáDEHLQVW\WXFMH

31

Op. cit., s. 726.

32

G.L. Kaminsky, S. L. Schmuckler, What triggers market jitters? A chronicle of the Asian crisis, „Journal of

International Money and Finance”, Vol. 18 (1999), s. 540-541.

33

J. Pincus, R. Ramli, Indonesia: from showcase to basket case, ed. cit., s. 726.

34

Ibid., s. 727-728.

Kryzysy walutowe i finansowe – wybrane przypadki

9

QDG]RUF]HQLHGRVWU]HJá\]DJUR*HSRZVWDMF\FKZHZQWU]V\VWHPXEDQNRZHJR'RGDWNRZR

XF]HVWQLF\U\QNXILQDQVRZHJRE\OLSUDZLHGRNRFDJá ERNRSU]HNRQDQL]HU]GQLHGRSXFL

GRSRZD*QHMGHZDOXDFMLNUDMRZHMZDOXW\]XZDJLQDGX*H]DGáX*HQLH]DJUDQLF]QH3RGREQLH

MDN SRGF]DV NU\]\VX PHNV\NDVNLHJR Eá GQH RFHQ\ DQDOLW\NyZ FR GR SROLW\NL U]GX

SRJá ELá\MHV]F]HNU\]\V

35

.

.ROHMQ\PSU]\NáDGHPD]MDW\FNLHJRW\JU\VDNWyU\QLHXVWU]HJáVL NU\]\VXMHVW.RUHD

3RáXGQLRZD3U]\F]\Q\NU\]\VXNRUHDVNLHJRZ\GDMVL E\üEDUG]LHMQLHMHGQR]QDF]QH2WR

FR U]HF]\ZLFLH VSRZRGRZDáR NU\]\V NRUHDVNL WRF]\ VL  VSyU ZUyG HNRQRPLVWyZ -HGQL

ZVND]XM V\VWHPRZH SUREOHP\ JRVSRGDUNL NRUHDVNLHM

36

 LQQL ZVND]XM QD OH

SU]HSURZDG]RQOLEHUDOL]DFM U\QNyZILQDQVRZ\FKLSDQLN QDU\QNX

37

.

Historia dochodzenia do kryzysu w Korei jest podobna do tej znanej z Meksyku i

,QGRQH]ML:ODWDFKRVLHPG]LHVLW\FKU]GNRUHDVNL]DSRF]WNRZDáSURFHVOLEHUDOL]DFMLU\QNX

ILQDQVRZHJR 3URFHV WHQ QDVLOLá VL  Z ODWDFK G]LHZL üG]LHVLW\FK 2EHMPRZDá GHUHJXODFM

U\QNXILQDQVRZHJRZL NV]DXWRQRPL GODZáDG]EDQNyZ]UHGXNRZDQLHEDULHUZHMFLDGOD

LQVW\WXFMLILQDQVRZ\FKRUD]OLEHUDOL]DFM SU]HSá\ZyZNDSLWDáRZ\FK:HMFLH.RUHLGR2(&'

ZSá\Q áR UyZQLH* QD GDOV] OLEHUDOL]DFM  SU]HSá\ZyZ NDSLWDáRZ\FK .LHG\ Z  U

]UHGXNRZDQR RJUDQLF]HQLD GRW\F]FH SR*\F]HN ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK SU\ZDWQH ]DGáX*HQLH

]DJUDQLF]QH]DF] áRV]\ENRURVQüE\ZURVLJQüSR]LRPPLOLDUGyZGRODUyZ

: ODWDFK  ]DGáX*HQLH ]DJUDQLF]QH URVáR Z WHPSLH UHGQLR  URF]QLH &LJOH

MHGQDN GáXJ ]DJUDQLF]Q\ FKRü Z\VNRNL VWDQRZLá MHG\QLH  3.% GOD SRUyZQDQLD Z

0HNV\NXVWDQRZLáR3.1Z,QGRQH]ML3.%Z,QGRQH]ML-HGQDN]QRZXSRGREQLH

MDN Z 0HNV\NX L ,QGRQH]ML SUREOHPHP E\áD VWUXNWXUD ]DGáX*HQLD ]DJUDQLF]QHJR :L NV]

F] ü]DGáX*HQLD]DJUDQLF]QHJRVWDQRZLáR]DGáX*HQLHNUyWNRWHUPLQRZH±GRMHGQHJRURNX&R

JRUV]D XG]LDá ]DGáX*HQLD NUyWNRWHUPLQRZHJR VWDOH UyVá :  U ]DGáX*HQLH R WHUPLQLH

]DSDGDOQRFL GR MHGQHJR URNX VWDQRZLáR  ]DGáX*HQLD WR MX* Z  U XG]LDá WHQ

VWDQRZLááF]QHJR]DGáX*HQLD.ROHMQ\PF]\QQLNLHP]ZL NV]DMF\PU\]\NRE\áIDNW

]DGáX*HQLH ]DJUDQLF]QH E\áR JHQHURZDQH JáRZQLH SU]H] QRZR SRZVWDáH EDQNL QLH PDMFH

GX*HJR GRZLDGF]HQLD Z G]LDáDOQRFL QD PL G]\QDURGRZ\FK U\QNDFK ILQDQVRZ\FK

'RFKRG]LáMHV]F]HMHGHQQLHNRU]\VWQ\F]\QQLN±QDG]yUEDQNRZ\SUDZLHQLHLVWQLDáSU]H]FR

ZáDG]H .RUHL QLH PLDá\ ZLDGRPRFL U]HF]\ZLVWHM VWUXNWXU\ ]DJUDQLF]QHJR ]DGáX*HQLD
prywatnego

38

.

3RMDZLD VL  SRJOG ]H NU\]\V NRUHDVNL E\á UH]XOWDWHP Z\áF]QLH QLHZáDFLZ\FK

LQZHVW\FML GRNRQ\ZDQ\FK SU]H] SU]HGVL ELRUVWZD NUDMRZH ,QZHVW\FMH WDNLH E\á\ PR*OLZH

MDNR*HU]GNRUHDVNLXG]LHODáJZDUDQFMLEDQNRPLSU]HGVL ELRUVWZRP7RSRZRGRZDáR]H

SU]HGVL ELRUVWZD L EDQNL QLH ]ZUDFDá\ Z\VWDUF]DMFHM XZDJL QD SRWHQFMDOQ U\]\NRZQRü
inwestycji

39

 5]G F] VWR RGGáX*Dá SU]HGVL ELRUVWZD FR QLH PRW\ZRZDáR MH GR XQLNDQLD

U\]\ND : NRQVHNZHQFML NRUHDVNLH SU]HGVL ELRUVWZD E\á\ VLOQLH ]DGáX*RQH LQZHVWXMF

MHGQRF]HQLH Z U\]\NRZQHL PDáR HIHNW\ZQH SU]HGVL Z]L FLD &R ZL FHM URVáR ]DGáX*HQLH

SU]HGVL ELRUVWZ Z]JO GHP SR]DEDQNRZ\FK LQVW\WXFML ILQDQVRZ\FK NWyU\FK QD SHZQR QLH

REMáE\*DGHQSURJUDPRGGáX*HQLD

:DUWR MHGQDN QDGPLHQLü *H F]HEROH LQZHVWRZDá\ JáyZQLH Z WUDG\F\MQH JDá ]LH

35

J. Pincus, R. Ramli, ed. cit., s. 731.

36

L. Britain, Asian Model R.I.P., „Finacial Times”, 4.12.1997, za: H.-J. Chang, H.-J. Park, C. G. Yoo,

Interpreting the Korean Crisis: financial liberalisation, industrial policy and corporate governance, „Cambridge
Journal of Economics”, No. 22, 1998, s. 736.

37

J. Stiglitz, Sound Finance and Sustainable Development in Asia, Asian Development Forum, 10-13.03.1998,

za: H.-J. Chang, H.-J. Park, C. G. Yoo, Interpreting the Korean Crisis, s. 736.

38

H.-J. Chang, H.-J. Park, C. G. Yoo, Interpreting the Korean Crisis: financial liberalisation, industrial policy

and corporate governance, „Cambridge Journal of Economics”, No. 22, 1998, s. 738-739.

39

P. Krugman, What Happened to Asia, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, za:

H.-J. Chang, H.-J. Park, C. G. Yoo, Interpreting the Korean Crisis..., ed. cit., s. 742.

10

Tomasz Puzyrewicz

SU]HP\VáXMDNSU]HP\VáVDPRFKRGRZ\SHWURFKHPLF]Q\VWDORZ\LVWRF]QLRZ\

40

. Inwestycje

MHGQDNE\á\QLHSU]HP\ODQHFRQLHJZDUDQWRZDáRZ\VWDUF]DMF\FKVWyS]ZURWX

&LHNDZ\PLGRüQLHW\SRZ\PQDWOHLQQ\FKNUDMyZD]MDW\FNLFKMHVWSU]\NáDG0DOH]ML

3RPLPR UHODW\ZQLH GX*HJR LQWHUZHQFMRQL]PX Z JRVSRGDUFH RFKURQD NUDMRZHJR U\QNX

SRSU]H] FáD QLH E\áD V]F]HJyOQLH VLOQD L XOHJáD GDOV]HPX RVáDELHQLX SR  U 5XQGD

8UXJZDMVND6]F]HJyOQLHVLOQHVSDGá\VWDZNLFHOQHQDWHNVW\OLDLVXURZFHUROQH

2JUDQLF]HQLD GRW\F]FH SU]HSá\ZyZ NDSLWDáRZ\FK E\á\ VWRSQLRZR OLNZLGRZDQH RG

U3URFHVWHQQDEUDáQDVLOHSRU&KDUDNWHU\VW\F]QFHFKSROLW\NLJRVSRGDUF]HM

0DOH]ML E\áR MHGQDN HODVW\F]QH D QLH GRJPDW\F]QH SRGHMFLH GR RJUDQLF]H Z NRQWUROL

SU]HSá\ZyZNDSLWDáRZ\FK:USRGF]DVNU\]\VXZJRVSRGDUFH]DVWRVRZDQRV]HUHJX

RJUDQLF]H GRW\F]F\FK U\QNX ZDOXWRZHJR D Z ODWDFK  RJUDQLF]HQLRP SRGGDQR

SU]HSá\ZX NDSLWDáX NUyWNRWHUPLQRZHJR :\HOLPLQRZDáR WR QDGPLHUQ\ QDSá\Z NDSLWDáX

VSHNXODF\MQHJR SRGGDMFHJR SUHVML DSUHFMDF\MQHM ZDOXW  NUDMRZ : F]DVLH NU\]\VX

D]MDW\FNLHJR Z  U 0DOH]MD ZSURZDG]LáD V]HUHJ RJUDQLF]H Z SU]HSá\ZLH NDSLWDáX L

]ZL]DáDZDOXW NUDMRZ]GRODUHP

41

.

5yZQLH RVWUR*QD E\áD SROLW\ND 0DOH]ML Z NZHVWLL ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK LQZHVW\FML

EH]SRUHGQLFK : SU]HFLZLHVWZLH GR RWZDUWRFL Z G]LHG]LQLH KDQGOX PL G]\QDURGRZHJR
gospodarka

PDOH]\MVNDE\áDUHODW\ZQLHWUXGQRGRVW SQDGOD]DJUDQLF]Q\FKLQZHVW\FML5]G

RG ODW V]HüG]LHVLW\FK ]DPLHU]Dá ZVSLHUDü W\ONR WH SURHNVSRUWRZH LQZHVW\FMH ]DJUDQLF]QH

,QZHVW\FMH ]DJUDQLF]QH Z RNUHORQ\FK G]LDáDFK JRVSRGDUNL NRU]\VWDá\ ] V]HUHJX ]ZROQLH

SRGDWNRZ\FKSRGZDUXQNLHPMHGQDN]DFKRZDQLDSURHNVSRUWRZHJRFKDUDNWHUXG]LDáDOQRFL

3U]\NáDGRZRVWXSURFHQWRZ\XG]LDá]DJUDQLF]QHJRLQZHVWRUDZSU]HGVL ELRUVWZLHNUDMRZ\P

GR]ZRORQ\ E\á MHG\QLH Z SU]\SDGNX ILUP HNVSRUWXMF\FK PLQLPXP  VZRMHM SURGXNFML

8G]LDá]DJUDQLF]QHJRNDSLWDáXSRUWIHORZHJRZQDMZL NV]\FKSU]HGVL ELRUVWZDFKZDKDáVL

RGGRZSU]\SDGNXMHGQHJR]QDMZL NV]\FKEDQNyZ

42

.

0R*QD VWZLHUG]Lü ]H Z NZHVWLL RWZDUWRü JRVSRGDUNL U]G PDOH]\MVNL SUH]HQWRZDá

GRü OLEHUDOQH VWDQRZLVNR QLH UH]\JQXMF MHGQDN ] QDU] G]L NRQWUROL QDG SU]HSá\ZDPL

NDSLWDáXNUyWNRWHUPLQRZHJR'RGDWNRZROLEHUDOQDSROLW\NDZ]DNUHVLHQDSá\ZXVLá\URERF]HM

PLDáD VZyM ZSá\Z QD ]QLZHORZDQLH SUHVML aprecjacyjnej na PDOH]\MVN ZDOXW  -DN MHGQDN

SRND]DáR GRZLDGF]HQLH NU\]\VX WDN RVWUR*QH SRGHMFLH U]GX malezyjskiego nie

Z\VWDUF]\áR DE\ Z\HOLPLQRZDü Z\VWSLHQLH NU\]\VX 3U]\NáDG 0DOH]ML SRGGDMH MHGQDN ]

SHZQ\PL ]DVWU]H*HQLDPL SRG ZWSOLZRü KLSRWH]  ]H ZVSyáF]HVQH NU\]\V\ ILQDQVRZH V

NU\]\VDPLÄ]DZLQLRQ\PL´SU]H]VDPHNUDMHGRWNQL WHNU\]\VHPDNDSLWDáPL G]\QDURGRZ\

MHVW MHG\QLH ÄZ\NRQDZF´ Z\URNX NWyUH QD VLHELH VDPH Z\GDá\ U]G\ SURZDG]F

QLHZáDFLZSROLW\N JRVSRGDUF]

Analiza zjawisk kryzysowych ostatnich dwóch dekad pozwala dostrzec szereg

LQWHUHVXMF\FK DQDORJLL QLH VWDQRZL MHGQDN áDWZHJR DUJXPHQWX QD U]HF] WH]\ R

ÄMHGQRRVRERZHM ZLQLH´ NDSLWDáX VSHNXODF\MQHJR L JOREDOL]DFML JRVSRGDUNL MDJR JáyZQHJR
czynnika

NU\]\VRJHQQHJR $QDOL]D WD SR]ZDOD UDF]HM GRVWU]HF F]\QQLNL ZHZQ WU]QH

]ZL NV]DMFH SRGDWQRü JRVSRGDUNL GDQHJR NUDMX QD Z\VWSLHQLH ]MDZLVN NU\]\VRZ\FK

2EDUF]DQLHZLQJOREDOQHJRU\QNXNDSLWDáRZHJRMHVWWXMHGQDN]E\WáDWZH

40

H.-J. Chang, H.-J. Park, C. G. Yoo, Interpreting the Korean Crisis..., ed. cit., s. 743

41

J. Menon, How Open is Malaysia? An Analysis of Trade, Capital and Labour Flows, „World Economy”, No.

8, 2001, s. 238.

42

Ibid., s. 241.