EKONOMETRYCZNY MODEL dot. PRODUKCJI CHLEBA |
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Dane odnoszą się do pewnej piekarni X i dotyczą okresów 10 dniowych. |
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Yt- produkcja chleba w tysiącach sztuk. |
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X1t-liczba zatrudnionych na dwie zmiany. |
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X2t-czas pracy w godzinach. |
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X3t-zużycie mąki w tonach. |
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Źródło:Dane z piekarni X. |
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Okres |
Yt |
X1t |
X2t |
X3t |
Y*t |
ut |
u^2t |
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1 |
14,35 |
152 |
12,89 |
6 |
15,1890017506209 |
-0,839001750620929 |
0,703923937544983 |
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2 |
18,26 |
202 |
16,4 |
6 |
18,3285420203656 |
-0,068542020365559 |
0,004698008555793 |
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3 |
21,98 |
213 |
20,37 |
8 |
22,5026284614174 |
-0,522628461417412 |
0,273140508683531 |
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4 |
19,23 |
202 |
17,27 |
7 |
19,600713735465 |
-0,370713735464964 |
0,137428673662387 |
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5 |
14,67 |
161 |
13,19 |
6 |
15,5403895098961 |
-0,870389509896075 |
0,75757789893713 |
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6 |
18,02 |
194 |
16,49 |
6 |
18,2459447369838 |
-0,225944736983767 |
0,051051024170664 |
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7 |
17,74 |
184 |
15,9 |
6 |
17,6901816583189 |
0,049818341681146 |
0,002481867167859 |
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8 |
17,34 |
197 |
15,55 |
5 |
16,98139650892 |
0,358603491080007 |
0,128596463814769 |
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9 |
19,1 |
166 |
14,21 |
7 |
16,9970407873977 |
2,10295921260226 |
4,42243744986874 |
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10 |
15,95 |
180 |
14,3 |
5 |
15,8774938386258 |
0,072506161374212 |
0,005257143437223 |
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11 |
19,36 |
183 |
17,37 |
7 |
19,3312729469104 |
0,028727053089629 |
0,000825243579214 |
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12 |
16,99 |
199 |
15,27 |
5 |
16,8361768017687 |
0,153823198231283 |
0,023661576314101 |
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13 |
18,12 |
190 |
16,25 |
5 |
17,3093030457394 |
0,810696954260575 |
0,657229551647372 |
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14 |
15,09 |
176 |
13,86 |
5 |
15,5237816878925 |
-0,433781687892513 |
0,188166552750877 |
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15 |
14,91 |
181 |
13,38 |
5 |
15,3024457643222 |
-0,392445764322204 |
0,154013677934439 |
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16 |
16,35 |
185 |
14,67 |
5 |
16,2036867453359 |
0,146313254664072 |
0,021407568490394 |
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1,9767298908846E-11 |
7,53189714655947 |
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14,35 |
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1 |
152 |
12,89 |
6 |
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Y= |
18,26 |
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X= |
1 |
202 |
16,4 |
6 |
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21,98 |
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1 |
213 |
20,37 |
8 |
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19,23 |
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1 |
202 |
17,27 |
7 |
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14,67 |
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1 |
161 |
13,19 |
6 |
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18,02 |
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1 |
194 |
16,49 |
6 |
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17,74 |
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1 |
184 |
15,9 |
6 |
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17,34 |
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1 |
197 |
15,55 |
5 |
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19,1 |
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1 |
166 |
14,21 |
7 |
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15,95 |
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1 |
180 |
14,3 |
5 |
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19,36 |
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1 |
183 |
17,37 |
7 |
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16,99 |
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1 |
199 |
15,27 |
5 |
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18,12 |
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1 |
190 |
16,25 |
5 |
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15,09 |
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1 |
176 |
13,86 |
5 |
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14,91 |
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1 |
181 |
13,38 |
5 |
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16,35 |
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1 |
185 |
14,67 |
5 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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X'= |
152 |
202 |
213 |
202 |
161 |
194 |
184 |
197 |
166 |
180 |
183 |
199 |
190 |
176 |
181 |
185 |
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12,89 |
16,4 |
20,37 |
17,27 |
13,19 |
16,49 |
15,9 |
15,55 |
14,21 |
14,3 |
17,37 |
15,27 |
16,25 |
13,86 |
13,38 |
14,67 |
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6 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
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16 |
2965 |
247,37 |
94 |
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X'X= |
2965 |
553411 |
46223,92 |
17459 |
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247,37 |
46223,92 |
3880,5099 |
1470,53 |
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94 |
17459 |
1470,53 |
566 |
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17,6493788356701 |
-0,146482599037967 |
1,1840132773434 |
-1,48892042169773 |
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277,46 |
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-0,055518604265672 |
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(X'X)-1= |
-0,146482599037962 |
0,001629069644883 |
-0,015784173853103 |
0,015085757165658 |
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X'Y= |
51761,4 |
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a= |
0,017571365529378 |
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1,18401327734331 |
-0,015784173853103 |
0,181985863941858 |
-0,182574256663192 |
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4344,7845 |
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0,644151565035827 |
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-1,48892042169766 |
0,015085757165658 |
-0,182574256663195 |
0,258051602359159 |
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1651,66 |
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0,711759853518231 |
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PODSUMOWANIE - WYJŚCIE |
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Statystyki regresji |
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Wielokrotność R |
0,939731801031456 |
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R kwadrat |
0,883095857869824 |
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Dopasowany R kwadrat |
0,853869822337279 |
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Błąd standardowy |
0,792248758627378 |
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Obserwacje |
16 |
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ANALIZA WARIANCJI |
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df |
SS |
MS |
F |
Istotność F |
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Regresja |
3 |
56,8960778534406 |
18,9653592844802 |
30,2160673446957 |
7,10056687977432E-06 |
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Resztkowy |
12 |
7,53189714655947 |
0,627658095546622 |
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Razem |
15 |
64,427975 |
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Współczynniki |
Błąd standardowy |
t Stat |
Wartość-p |
Dolne 95% |
Górne 95% |
Dolne 95,0% |
Górne 95,0% |
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Przecięcie |
-0,05551860426161 |
3,32832923665597 |
-0,016680622713092 |
0,986965538666494 |
-7,30732503811616 |
7,19628782959294 |
-7,30732503811616 |
7,19628782959294 |
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X1t |
0,017571365529351 |
0,031976534377887 |
0,549508127481845 |
0,592736274612622 |
-0,052099517741473 |
0,087242248800175 |
-0,052099517741473 |
0,087242248800175 |
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X2t |
0,644151565036071 |
0,33797174553233 |
1,90593318391597 |
0,080889233838551 |
-0,092225609349138 |
1,38052873942128 |
-0,092225609349138 |
1,38052873942128 |
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X3t |
0,711759853517938 |
0,402452701928463 |
1,76855528639103 |
0,102356414226939 |
-0,165109255771038 |
1,58862896280691 |
-0,165109255771038 |
1,58862896280691 |
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SKŁADNIKI RESZTOWE - WYJŚCIE |
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PRAWDOPODOBIEŃSTWO - WYJŚCIE |
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Obserwacja |
Przewidywane Yt |
Składniki resztowe |
Std. składniki resztowe |
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Percentyl |
Yt |
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1 |
15,1890017506224 |
-0,839001750622378 |
-1,18401255111044 |
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3,125 |
14,35 |
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2 |
18,3285420203666 |
-0,068542020366554 |
-0,09672758409892 |
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9,375 |
14,67 |
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3 |
22,5026284614185 |
-0,522628461418496 |
-0,737541557485438 |
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15,625 |
14,91 |
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4 |
19,6007137354659 |
-0,370713735465873 |
-0,523157091549604 |
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21,875 |
15,09 |
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5 |
15,5403895098974 |
-0,870389509897361 |
-1,22830745383889 |
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28,125 |
15,95 |
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6 |
18,245944736985 |
-0,225944736984989 |
-0,318856789332233 |
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34,375 |
16,35 |
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7 |
17,6901816583202 |
0,049818341679806 |
0,070304432357433 |
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40,625 |
16,99 |
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8 |
16,9813965089212 |
0,358603491078799 |
0,506066922976447 |
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46,875 |
17,34 |
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9 |
16,9970407873989 |
2,10295921260115 |
2,96772932874818 |
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53,125 |
17,74 |
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10 |
15,8774938386271 |
0,072506161372861 |
0,102321842635755 |
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59,375 |
18,02 |
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11 |
19,3312729469118 |
0,028727053088193 |
0,040540072041096 |
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65,625 |
18,12 |
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12 |
16,8361768017698 |
0,153823198230199 |
0,217077732223325 |
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71,875 |
18,26 |
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13 |
17,309303045741 |
0,810696954259011 |
1,14406837444336 |
|
78,125 |
19,1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
15,5237816878939 |
-0,433781687893859 |
-0,612159584324116 |
|
84,375 |
19,23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
15,3024457643233 |
-0,392445764323302 |
-0,553825674671394 |
|
90,625 |
19,36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
16,2036867453372 |
0,146313254662761 |
0,206479580985402 |
|
96,875 |
21,98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|