14th Lecture - Bewildering Your Opponents

Bewildering Your Opponents

The following lecture was the 14th Tuesday Session, held December 29, 1998, and later
appeared in Card Player magazine.

Classroom Lectures: Huge Poker Profit from Small Advantages

I posted this true story to my favorite Internet newsgroup, rec.gambling.poker, the day after it
happened last month. Before we get to today's classroom lecture, I'd like to share it with you,
too.

Getting called for $150 by an eight-high in hold 'em and another classroom lecture

Last night I managed to get called for $150 by eight-high (8-3 suited) on the final (river) card
in a $75/$150-limit hold 'em game. The opponent -- a pleasant but boisterous man of about 50
-- had been drinking, but I still think this illustrates the power of some of the psychological
concepts I teach. It happened like this...

Before the flop, I call with 8-8 in middle position with no one else having entered the pot. I
vary my strategy in this circumstance - sometimes raising, sometimes calling, and even rarely
folding when I have a strong-acting player waiting to act - but this time I decided to call.

The man I will eventually coax into making the call on the river with 8-3 accepts a free ride in
the big blind. There are no other players active. Flop is K-6-6, two-suited, giving the opponent
a flush draw - which would become a likelihood that was apparent to me the second time he
checked and called.. He checks. I bet. He calls. Turn card is another king. He checks. I bet. He
calls. River card is an offsuit 5 -- so board is now K-6-6-K-5 with no flush possible. My
opponent has 8-3 - as I'll soon discover for certain.

He checks. I bet. He starts to fold as he says, "What do you have?" I hesitate and answer, "I
have a good hand," in a tone intended to be doubted. Maybe I can get an ace or even a queen
to call. Then I add, as if composing on the spot and just wanting to continue with the next
hand, "I have a pair of eights." The truth (which would get me a 20-minute suspension in
some tournaments that have the ridiculous no-telling-the-truth-about-your-hand rule).

"You don't have a pair of eights," he declares, spreading his 8-3 face-up on the table. He is in
the process of folding, of course. Many people would just show their eights here to prove he
was wrong. After all, he isn't going to call with an eight-high nothing. Is he? Well, I sense
opportunity. "Either that or I have 7-4 suited, " I muse. He hesitates, and I set the
psychological trap by feigning slight desperation. "I'm just kidding," I bluster. "I've got that
beat really bad… I think."

You need to understand that I don't really expect to win this call, but the feeling is like having
some big ol' marlin on the line that is too much for your tackle. You're probably not going to
land it, but it's worth a try. "Either I have a pair of eights or I have 7-4 and you'll win," I
declare, trying to bring his decision into focus for him as he begins to fold again.

But you can't just leave a statement floating like that or the opponent will think he's being
conned and will fold. This is all in the tone of voice and the timing. I ask, "Which do you
think it is? I've been playing poker for a long time and I don't usually bet 7-4 in this situation,
I'll tell you that!" Now, he perceives that I'm trying to talk him out of the call, not into it. This
is key to proper psychology here.

He begins to fold for a third time. But I interrupt his action with, "You don't want to be calling
with THAT hand. That's a terrible hold 'em hand." Again he ponders. Finally, again, he
decides to fold. But I interrupt this action by throwing a $5 chip across the table and saying,
"Let's not slow up the game," although this whole interaction has only taken, perhaps, 20
seconds. "I'll give you that chip if you'll throw your hand away." He immediately declines the
chip and calls $150. Perhaps those who think of poker as a purely tactical, chess-like game
where psychology plays only a secondary role should ponder that true story.

Since we're running short of space, I won't add much to the single-page handout that
accompanied my 14th Tuesday Session on December 29, 1998. But I don't need to, because it
makes perfect sense and complements the you just read.

"Bewildering your opponents"

1.

No opponents are immune to psychological manipulation.

"No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American people." - H. L.
Mencken. And no pro poker player ever went broke underestimating the common
sense of his opponents.

Most opponents, even experienced ones who should know better, are easily
bewildered by psychological ploys designed to make them think that you play hands
you don't. You should be aware, though, that if you're not really as talented
psychologically as you think you are, your actions risk providing more value to
observant opponents than you gain through manipulation. In other words, make sure
you're actually in command and not just providing tells. Against the very best
opponents, it may be better to forego manipulative actions in order to be less easily
read.

2.

Make them back off.

Get opponents to worry about what you're going to do next. You can do this by
making unusual plays that stick in their minds or by making all bets sudden and
decisive. This latter trick, which is a good compromise for those who feel
uncomfortable "being onstage," works very well to limit opponents' tendencies to bet
or raise with small advantages. When you can get strong opponents to stop doing that -
because they're worried about you, you've taken them off their best game and
diminished their profit.

3.

You're the one.

Try to become the one force to be reckoned with at your table. You know you've
achieved this when you often see players sneak a peek in your direction before betting,
raising, or calling.

4.

A better image.

If opponents think that you're dangerous, but that you know what you're doing, you've
gained some psychological leverage. But, you gain much more psychological leverage

if your opponents think you're dangerous and you don't know what you're doing.
Opponents predictably run for cover and hold their fire against a "loose cannon."

You need to put your ego aside and allow your opponents to think you are playing
poorly or are just lucky. I'm often telling my opponents how badly I play - that I'm just
having fun - to help them falsely conclude the one or two bizarre plays I make are
indicative of my overall game plan. I even say, "Don't criticize me or tell anyone else I
play like this. It would ruin my reputation! If you want me to play good, I will, but
then I might take your chips." This psychology usually leads to me taking their chips
anyway, and it has another great benefit. It empowers opponents to play poorly. If I'm
asking them not to be critical of my play, they believe I'm not likely to be critical of
theirs. And that means they can get into action by playing substandard hands without
embarrassment - which, deep in their souls, is really what most players really came to
the casino to do.

5.

Raising blind.

One of my favorite tactics is to raise the blinds (or just raise from a late position if
there are no blinds) without looking at my cards. The maneuver makes it look like you
don't care much about money and makes opponents think twice before they attack you.
They become predictable and you become the force to be reckoned with. And,
actually, you're not sacrificing much profit, since you would have raised with many
hands anyway, and the substandard ones are not huge underdogs.

If the small blind has the habit of almost always raising by big blind heads up, I will
frequently reraise without looking. How much of a disadvantage is this to me? Not
much at all. Since my opponent almost always raises, his hand is almost random from
my point of view. Theoretically, I am almost raising a random hand with another
random hand, and I will have a positional advantage - being last to act - through all
remaining betting rounds. This reraise without looking provides large psychological
returns for a little cost.

6.

A daring reraise.

When a fairly aggressive opponent check-raises me on an early betting round, I often
raise again with hands that would normally take slightly the worst of it. This makes
me seem more bewildering in the future, and the cost is minimal. It's likely that if I
don't have the best hand, I'll be checked to on the next round, and - if I'm still trailing -
I might even recover the "lost" bet by checking and seeing a free card.

7.

Select your audience.

Tend to select weak opponents for advertising plays. Your stronger foes tend not to
realize that they are being excluded from the "giveaway" money, and they call
unprofitably on future hands.

8.

When to advertise.

Tend to advertise when opponents seem to have weak hands. You'll still get full
psychological value, and you often stumble into a winning hand! - MC