zadanie 15 |
|
Praca domowa |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
W firmie handlowej ”Sprzedam Wszystko” analizowano zwiazek pomiedzy popytem na ”Przydasie” i ich cena, Dane |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
oraz wstepne wyniki analizy ponizej, Nalezy okreslic, które z proponowanych modeli moga posłuzyc do opisu zaleznosci |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
popytu od ceny, Bazujac na wybranych modelach okresl przy jakiej cenie osiagany jest maksymalny zysk przyjmujac, ze |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
k-p-1= |
4 |
n= |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
koszty produkcji i zbytu wynosza łacznie 3 na sztuke |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
n-k= |
24 |
k= |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Y-średnia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
cena |
popyt |
|
X |
Y |
błąd losowy |
średni Yi |
czysty błąd |
srednia^2 |
oszacowany Y |
(srednia-oszaco)^2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
32,186 |
|
1 |
32,186 |
11,0204476190476 |
37,1042 |
-4,91820000000001 |
24,1886912400001 |
21,1655523809524 |
254,040487924173 |
|
|
b1 |
b0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
37,18 |
|
1 |
37,18 |
16,0144476190476 |
37,1042 |
0,075799999999994 |
0,005745639999999 |
21,1655523809524 |
254,040487924173 |
|
oceny dla B |
-1,37864857142857 |
22,544200952381 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
35,089 |
|
1 |
35,089 |
13,9234476190476 |
37,1042 |
-2,01520000000001 |
4,06103104000003 |
21,1655523809524 |
254,040487924173 |
|
S dla Bet |
0,267309238340425 |
3,46128478736704 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
46,544 |
|
1 |
46,544 |
25,3784476190476 |
37,1042 |
9,43979999999999 |
89,1098240399998 |
21,1655523809524 |
254,040487924173 |
|
R^2 |
0,487178093160349 |
10,0017958618937 |
s dla błędu |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
34,522 |
|
1 |
34,522 |
13,3564476190476 |
37,1042 |
-2,58220000000001 |
6,66775684000004 |
21,1655523809524 |
254,040487924173 |
|
Femp |
26,5998515791858 |
28 |
st swobody dla błędu |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
2,862 |
|
5 |
2,862 |
-12,7889580952381 |
3,6722 |
-0,810200000000001 |
0,656424040000002 |
15,6509580952381 |
143,490645504232 |
|
var R |
2660,94063690286 |
2801,00577296381 |
RSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
3,944 |
|
5 |
3,944 |
-11,7069580952381 |
3,6722 |
0,271799999999999 |
0,07387524 |
15,6509580952381 |
143,490645504232 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
4,065 |
|
5 |
4,065 |
-11,5859580952381 |
3,6722 |
0,392799999999999 |
0,15429184 |
15,6509580952381 |
143,490645504232 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
4,222 |
|
5 |
4,222 |
-11,4289580952381 |
3,6722 |
0,549799999999999 |
0,302280039999999 |
15,6509580952381 |
143,490645504232 |
|
|
|
1/x |
ln(x)ln(y) |
ln(x) |
ln(y) |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
3,268 |
|
5 |
3,268 |
-12,3829580952381 |
3,6722 |
-0,404200000000001 |
0,163377640000001 |
15,6509580952381 |
143,490645504232 |
|
|
model 1 |
model 2 |
model 3 |
model 4 |
model 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
1,3 |
|
9 |
1,3 |
-8,83636380952381 |
1,5248 |
-0,2248 |
0,05053504 |
10,1363638095238 |
74,1590312455003 |
|
model |
liniowy |
hiperboliczny |
potęgowy |
logarytmiczny |
wykładniczy |
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
1,385 |
|
9 |
1,385 |
-8,75136380952381 |
1,5248 |
-0,1398 |
0,01954404 |
10,1363638095238 |
74,1590312455003 |
|
b1 |
-1,37864857142857 |
39,1870214118735 |
-1,44838088047039 |
-12,0407003908928 |
-0,198863683444296 |
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
1,391 |
|
9 |
1,391 |
-8,74536380952381 |
1,5248 |
-0,1338 |
0,01790244 |
10,1363638095238 |
74,1590312455003 |
|
b0 |
22,544200952381 |
-2,38161549869161 |
3,60621046096917 |
31,9608541308034 |
2,8367574948405 |
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
1,934 |
|
9 |
1,934 |
-8,20236380952381 |
1,5248 |
0,4092 |
0,16744464 |
10,1363638095238 |
74,1590312455003 |
|
s dla b1 |
0,267309238340425 |
1,24716233049549 |
0,029075862189209 |
1,01447198901998 |
0,016983963882867 |
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
1,614 |
|
9 |
1,614 |
-8,52236380952381 |
1,5248 |
0,0892 |
0,00795664 |
10,1363638095238 |
74,1590312455003 |
|
S2 |
100,035920462993 |
5,379765612853 |
0,026569045725518 |
32,3437873377553 |
0,403837040844341 |
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
0,861 |
|
13 |
0,861 |
-3,76076952380953 |
0,9222 |
-0,0612 |
0,00374544 |
4,62176952380953 |
13,6868146615002 |
|
Femp |
26,5998515791858 |
987,275906596623 |
2481,42048362139 |
140,871578112649 |
137,098544290263 |
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
1,051 |
|
13 |
1,051 |
-3,57076952380953 |
0,9222 |
0,1288 |
0,01658944 |
4,62176952380953 |
13,6868146615002 |
|
D |
0,487178093160349 |
0,972421289801054 |
0,98884204533168 |
0,834193531481526 |
0,830404319309002 |
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
0,888 |
|
13 |
0,888 |
-3,73376952380953 |
0,9222 |
-0,0342 |
0,00116964 |
4,62176952380953 |
13,6868146615002 |
|
RSS |
2801,00577296381 |
150,633437159884 |
0,743933280314505 |
905,626045457149 |
11,3074371436415 |
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
0,948 |
|
13 |
0,948 |
-3,67376952380953 |
0,9222 |
0,0258 |
0,00066564 |
4,62176952380953 |
13,6868146615002 |
|
Var B cz |
125,7788488 |
125,7788488 |
0,667006373036344 |
125,7788488 |
0,667006373036344 |
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
0,863 |
|
13 |
0,863 |
-3,75876952380953 |
0,9222 |
-0,0592 |
0,00350464 |
4,62176952380953 |
13,6868146615002 |
|
Var B d. |
2675,22692416381 |
24,854588359884 |
0,076926907278161 |
779,847196657149 |
10,6404307706052 |
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
0,596 |
|
17 |
0,596 |
1,48882476190476 |
0,5628 |
0,0332 |
0,00110224 |
-0,892824761904759 |
2,11884344747029 |
|
Fb.d. |
127,615745398545 |
1,18563281173316 |
0,691989555613761 |
37,200874587293 |
95,7151043894936 |
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
0,477 |
|
17 |
0,477 |
1,36982476190476 |
0,5628 |
-0,0858 |
0,00736164 |
-0,892824761904759 |
2,11884344747029 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
0,477 |
|
17 |
0,477 |
1,36982476190476 |
0,5628 |
-0,0858 |
0,00736164 |
-0,892824761904759 |
2,11884344747029 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
0,78 |
|
17 |
0,78 |
1,67282476190476 |
0,5628 |
0,2172 |
0,04717584 |
-0,892824761904759 |
2,11884344747029 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
0,484 |
|
17 |
0,484 |
1,37682476190476 |
0,5628 |
-0,0788 |
0,00620944 |
-0,892824761904759 |
2,11884344747029 |
|
model |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 |
0,482 |
|
21 |
0,482 |
6,88941904761904 |
0,4882 |
-0,0062 |
3,84399999999998E-05 |
-6,40741904761904 |
47,5495620498866 |
|
b1 |
-1,37864857142857 |
|
|
21 |
0,431 |
|
21 |
0,431 |
6,83841904761904 |
0,4882 |
-0,0572 |
0,00327184 |
-6,40741904761904 |
47,5495620498866 |
|
b0 |
22,544200952381 |
|
21 |
0,547 |
|
21 |
0,547 |
6,95441904761904 |
0,4882 |
0,0588 |
0,00345744 |
-6,40741904761904 |
47,5495620498866 |
|
s dla b1 |
0,267309238340425 |
|
21 |
0,614 |
|
21 |
0,614 |
7,02141904761904 |
0,4882 |
0,1258 |
0,01582564 |
-6,40741904761904 |
47,5495620498866 |
|
S2 |
100,035920462993 |
|
21 |
0,367 |
|
21 |
0,367 |
6,77441904761904 |
0,4882 |
-0,1212 |
0,01468944 |
-6,40741904761904 |
47,5495620498866 |
|
Femp |
26,5998515791858 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D |
0,487178093160349 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Test adekwatności |
|
|
|
|
|
|
RSS |
2801,00577296381 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
model |
linniowy |
hiperboliczny |
potęgowy |
logarytmiczny |
wykładniczy |
|
Var B cz |
125,7788488 |
|
|
|
|
|
klasyfikacja 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Var B d. |
2675,22692416381 |
|
|
|
|
|
F emp |
|
26,5998515791858 |
987,275906596623 |
2481,42048362139 |
140,871578112649 |
137,098544290263 |
|
Fb.d. |
127,615745398545 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F tab (0,05;p;n-p-1) |
|
4,19597181855777 |
4,19597181855777 |
4,19597181855777 |
4,19597181855777 |
4,19597181855777 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F emp > F tab = tak |
|
TAK |
TAK |
TAK |
TAK |
TAK |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
klasyfikacja 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fb.d. |
|
127,615745398545 |
1,18563281173316 |
0,691989555613761 |
37,200874587293 |
95,7151043894936 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F tab (0,05;k-p-1;n-k) |
|
2,77628928925148 |
2,77628928925148 |
2,77628928925148 |
2,77628928925148 |
2,77628928925148 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F adw > F tab = tak |
|
NIE |
TAK |
TAK |
NIE |
NIE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
model przyjmujemy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Test Shapiro-Wilka |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
model 3 |
potęgowy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
model 2 |
hiperboliczny |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bład losowy |
|
róznica |
współczynniki |
iloczyn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,315657277157551 |
-0,24287721123836 |
0,558534488395912 |
0,4254 |
0,237600571363621 |
|
|
bład losowy |
|
róznica |
współczynniki |
iloczyn |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,248900217556936 |
-0,24287721123836 |
0,491777428795296 |
0,2944 |
0,144779275037335 |
|
|
9,73859408681806 |
-4,61940591318194 |
14,358 |
0,4254 |
6,1078932 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,23579800397535 |
-0,22830879541007 |
0,46410679938542 |
0,2487 |
0,115423361007154 |
|
|
1,12956686003096 |
-2,5937887836831 |
3,72335564371406 |
0,2944 |
1,09615590150942 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,234187640783673 |
-0,22361067916118 |
0,457798319944853 |
0,2148 |
0,098335079124155 |
|
|
1,06256686003096 |
-2,28340591318194 |
3,3459727732129 |
0,2487 |
0,832143428698048 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,20011115143239 |
-0,198975802935021 |
0,399086954367411 |
0,187 |
0,074629260466706 |
|
|
0,997566860030963 |
-2,1877887836831 |
3,18535564371406 |
0,2148 |
0,684214392269781 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,16517758913069 |
-0,161428128588261 |
0,326605717718951 |
0,163 |
0,053236731988189 |
|
|
0,946566860030963 |
-1,71640591318194 |
2,6629727732129 |
0,187 |
0,497975908590812 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,15855523964775 |
-0,134678885572869 |
0,29323412522062 |
0,1415 |
0,041492628718718 |
|
|
0,882566860030963 |
-1,5117887836831 |
2,39435564371406 |
0,163 |
0,390279969925393 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,127282382704335 |
-0,09809225341645 |
0,225374636120785 |
0,1219 |
0,027473168143124 |
|
|
0,856496592110811 |
-1,3907887836831 |
2,24728537579391 |
0,1415 |
0,317990880674839 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,09706407644495 |
-0,093769480114446 |
0,190833556559396 |
0,1036 |
0,019770356459554 |
|
|
0,672496592110811 |
-1,2337887836831 |
1,90628537579391 |
0,1219 |
0,232376187309278 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,073606463061009 |
-0,090953183297683 |
0,164559646358692 |
0,0862 |
0,014185041516119 |
|
|
0,560496592110811 |
-0,672497991516564 |
1,23299458362737 |
0,1036 |
0,127738238863796 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,055412371025821 |
-0,064613659004675 |
0,120026030030496 |
0,0697 |
0,008365814293126 |
|
|
0,553496592110811 |
-0,587497991516564 |
1,14099458362738 |
0,0862 |
0,09835373310868 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,054923176792005 |
-0,048322769927749 |
0,103245946719754 |
0,0537 |
0,005544307338851 |
|
|
0,553496592110811 |
-0,581497991516564 |
1,13499458362737 |
0,0697 |
0,079109122478828 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,009560521324125 |
-0,04084762680147 |
0,050408148125595 |
0,0381 |
0,001920550443585 |
|
|
0,418229236239797 |
-0,358497991516564 |
0,77672722775636 |
0,0537 |
0,041710252130517 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0,009970388237031 |
-0,038527440145773 |
0,028557051908742 |
0,0227 |
0,000648245078328 |
|
|
0,374594086818064 |
-0,038497991516564 |
0,413092078334628 |
0,0381 |
0,015738808184549 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0,020153035061352 |
-0,038229560885843 |
0,018076525824492 |
0,0076 |
0,000137381596266 |
|
|
0,315229236239797 |
0,228229236239797 |
0,087 |
0,0227 |
0,0019749 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,255229236239797 |
0,230229236239797 |
0,025 |
0,0076 |
0,00019 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
suma= |
|
0,843541772574829 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
suma kwadratów= |
|
0,743933280314506 |
|
|
|
|
suma= |
|
10,5238449237439 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
W emp= |
|
0,956487283077139 |
Wemp>Wkryt |
|
|
|
suma kwadratów= |
|
150,633437159884 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
W(0,05;30) |
|
0,927 |
Hipotezy nie odrzucamy |
|
|
|
W emp= |
|
0,735237235949534 |
Wemp<Wkryt |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
W(0,05;30) |
|
0,927 |
Hipoteze odrzucamy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|