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Określenie empirycznych przepływów o określonym prawdopodobieństwie występowania |
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Rzeka : Wkra |
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Profil: Cieksyn |
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Lp. |
Rok |
QmaxL |
QmaxZ |
QmaxR |
p=m/(N+1)*100 |
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Tabela nr 11 |
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wartość |
ciąg |
wartość |
ciąg |
wartość |
ciąg |
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Lp. |
WQ (m3/s) |
WQ (m3/s) |
Ranga |
Próba |
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1 |
1948 |
50,6 |
210 |
70,2 |
153 |
70,2 |
210 |
5,56 |
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1 |
70,2 |
22,7 |
1 |
1 |
próba 1 |
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2 |
1949 |
17 |
79,2 |
71,1 |
125 |
71,1 |
153 |
11,11 |
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2 |
71,1 |
44,8 |
2 |
1 |
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3 |
1950 |
34,3 |
50,6 |
55,7 |
124 |
55,7 |
125 |
16,67 |
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3 |
55,7 |
47,9 |
3 |
2 |
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4 |
1951 |
15,7 |
39,3 |
125 |
118 |
125 |
124 |
22,22 |
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4 |
125 |
55,7 |
4 |
1 |
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5 |
1952 |
13,2 |
34,3 |
22,7 |
111 |
22,7 |
111 |
27,78 |
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5 |
22,7 |
57,2 |
5 |
1 |
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6 |
1953 |
10,5 |
34 |
124 |
95,7 |
124 |
95,7 |
33,33 |
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6 |
124 |
65,1 |
6 |
2 |
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7 |
1954 |
12,9 |
32,7 |
44,8 |
90,5 |
44,8 |
90,5 |
38,89 |
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7 |
44,8 |
70,2 |
7 |
1 |
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8 |
1955 |
17,3 |
30,9 |
57,2 |
86 |
57,2 |
86 |
44,44 |
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8 |
57,2 |
71,1 |
8 |
1 |
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9 |
1956 |
28,1 |
28,1 |
95,7 |
71,8 |
95,7 |
71,8 |
50,00 |
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9 |
95,7 |
71,8 |
9 |
2 |
próba 2 |
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10 |
1957 |
39,3 |
26,1 |
90,5 |
71,1 |
90,5 |
71,1 |
55,56 |
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10 |
90,5 |
86 |
10 |
2 |
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11 |
1958 |
34 |
17,3 |
153 |
70,2 |
153 |
70,2 |
61,11 |
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11 |
153 |
90,5 |
11 |
2 |
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12 |
1959 |
9,26 |
17 |
47,9 |
65,1 |
47,9 |
65,1 |
66,67 |
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12 |
47,9 |
95,7 |
12 |
2 |
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13 |
1960 |
79,2 |
15,7 |
111 |
57,2 |
111 |
57,2 |
72,22 |
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13 |
111 |
111 |
13 |
2 |
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14 |
1961 |
32,7 |
13,2 |
65,1 |
55,7 |
65,1 |
55,7 |
77,78 |
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14 |
65,1 |
124 |
14 |
1 |
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15 |
1962 |
210 |
12,9 |
118 |
47,9 |
210 |
47,9 |
83,33 |
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15 |
210 |
125 |
15 |
1 |
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16 |
1963 |
26,1 |
10,5 |
86 |
44,8 |
86 |
44,8 |
88,89 |
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16 |
86 |
153 |
16 |
2 |
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17 |
1964 |
30,9 |
9,26 |
71,8 |
22,7 |
71,8 |
22,7 |
94,44 |
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17 |
71,8 |
210 |
17 |
2 |
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T2= |
97 |
T1= |
56 |
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T22= |
9409 |
T12= |
3136 |
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Zestawienie przeływów minimalnych |
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Rzeka : Wkra |
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Profil: Cieksyn |
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Lp. |
Rok |
QminR |
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1 |
1948 |
4,56 |
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2 |
1949 |
5,04 |
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3 |
1950 |
5,28 |
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4 |
1951 |
3,84 |
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5 |
1952 |
3,14 |
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6 |
1953 |
3,3 |
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7 |
1954 |
3,3 |
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8 |
1955 |
4,05 |
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9 |
1956 |
4,26 |
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10 |
1957 |
4,66 |
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11 |
1958 |
5 |
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12 |
1959 |
2,94 |
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13 |
1960 |
4,64 |
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14 |
1961 |
4,16 |
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15 |
1962 |
5,36 |
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Tabela nr 6 |
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16 |
1963 |
2 |
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Obliczanie przepływów maksymalnych rocznych metodą Kaczmarka |
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17 |
1964 |
3,3 |
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Tabela do obliczeń granic przedziałów ufności przeplywów maksymalnych rocznych. Metoda Dębskiego. |
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Rzeka: Wkra |
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Profil: Cieksyn |
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Lp |
p% |
F(p,s) |
CvF(p,s) |
1+CvF(p,s) |
QMAXp% |
Obliczanie przepływów maksymalnych rocznych metodą Kaczmarka |
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Rzeka: Wkra |
Profil: Cieksyn |
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1 |
1 |
2,7 |
2,01 |
3,01 |
253 |
Rzeka: Wkra |
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Profil: Cieksyn |
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p% |
Qp |
F(p,s) |
sQp |
Pa=0,68 |
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2 |
2 |
2,28 |
1,70 |
2,70 |
226 |
Lp |
p% |
F(p,s) |
CvF(p,s) |
1+CvF(p,s) |
QMAXp% |
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Q'p=Qp-sQp |
Q"p=Qp+sQp |
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3 |
3 |
1,98 |
1,47 |
2,47 |
208 |
1 |
1 |
2,7 |
2,01 |
3,01 |
253 |
V= |
62,5 |
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1 |
260 |
5,53 |
83,8 |
176 |
343 |
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4 |
5 |
1,71 |
1,27 |
2,27 |
191 |
2 |
2 |
2,28 |
1,70 |
2,70 |
226 |
Cv= |
0,744 |
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2 |
246 |
4,67 |
70,8 |
176 |
317 |
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5 |
10 |
1,25 |
0,930 |
1,93 |
162 |
3 |
3 |
1,98 |
1,47 |
2,47 |
208 |
s= |
0,51 |
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3 |
233 |
3,82 |
57,9 |
175 |
291 |
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6 |
15 |
1 |
0,744 |
1,74 |
146 |
4 |
5 |
1,71 |
1,27 |
2,27 |
191 |
d5= |
84 |
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5 |
193 |
2,97 |
45,0 |
148 |
238 |
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7 |
20 |
0,76 |
0,565 |
1,57 |
131 |
5 |
10 |
1,25 |
0,930 |
1,93 |
162 |
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10 |
163 |
2,06 |
31,2 |
132 |
195 |
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8 |
30 |
0,45 |
0,335 |
1,33 |
112 |
6 |
15 |
1 |
0,744 |
1,74 |
146 |
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15 |
140 |
1,79 |
27,1 |
112 |
167 |
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9 |
50 |
0 |
0,000 |
1,00 |
84,0 |
7 |
20 |
0,76 |
0,565 |
1,57 |
131 |
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20 |
132 |
1,52 |
23,0 |
109 |
155 |
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10 |
80 |
-0,54 |
-0,402 |
0,598 |
50,3 |
8 |
30 |
0,45 |
0,335 |
1,33 |
112 |
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30 |
116 |
1,25 |
18,9 |
96,8 |
135 |
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11 |
90 |
-0,75 |
-0,558 |
0,442 |
37,1 |
9 |
50 |
0 |
0,000 |
1,00 |
84,0 |
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50 |
84,0 |
0,978 |
14,8 |
69,2 |
98,8 |
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10 |
80 |
-0,54 |
-0,402 |
0,598 |
50,3 |
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Tabela nr 7 |
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11 |
90 |
-0,75 |
-0,558 |
0,442 |
37,1 |
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Tabela do obliczeń granic przedziałów ufności przeplywów maksymalnych rocznych. Metoda Kaczmarka. |
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Rzeka: Wkra |
Profil: Cieksyn |
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p% |
Qp |
F(p,s) |
sQp |
Pa=0,68 |
Obliczanie przepływów maksymalnych rocznych metodą Dębskiego |
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Q'p=Qp-sQp |
Q"p=Qp+sQp |
Rzeka: Wkra |
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Profil: Cieksyn |
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1 |
253 |
5,53 |
83,8 |
169 |
337 |
Lp |
p% |
F(p,s) |
CvF(p,s) |
1+CvF(p,s) |
QMAXp% |
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Tabela do obliczeń granic przedziałów ufności przeplywów maksymalnych rocznych. Metoda Kaczmarka. |
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2 |
226 |
4,67 |
70,8 |
156 |
297 |
1 |
1 |
2,81 |
2,09 |
3,09 |
260 |
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3 |
208 |
3,82 |
57,9 |
150 |
266 |
2 |
2 |
2,598 |
1,93 |
2,93 |
246 |
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Rzeka: Wkra |
Profil: Cieksyn |
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5 |
191 |
2,97 |
45,0 |
146 |
236 |
3 |
3 |
2,386 |
1,78 |
2,78 |
233 |
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p% |
Qp |
F(p,s) |
sQp |
Pa=0,68 |
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10 |
162 |
2,06 |
31,2 |
131 |
193 |
4 |
5 |
1,75 |
1,30 |
2,30 |
193 |
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Q'p=Qp-sQp |
Q"p=Qp+sQp |
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15 |
146 |
1,79 |
27,1 |
119 |
174 |
5 |
10 |
1,27 |
0,945 |
1,94 |
163 |
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1 |
253 |
5,53 |
83,8 |
169 |
337 |
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20 |
131 |
1,52 |
23,0 |
108 |
155 |
6 |
15 |
0,889 |
0,661 |
1,66 |
140 |
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2 |
226 |
4,67 |
70,8 |
156 |
297 |
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30 |
112 |
1,25 |
18,9 |
93,2 |
131 |
7 |
20 |
0,762 |
0,567 |
1,57 |
132 |
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3 |
208 |
3,82 |
57,9 |
150 |
266 |
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50 |
84,0 |
0,978 |
14,8 |
69,2 |
98,8 |
8 |
30 |
0,508 |
0,378 |
1,38 |
116 |
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5 |
191 |
2,97 |
45,0 |
146 |
236 |
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9 |
50 |
0 |
0,000 |
1,00 |
84,0 |
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10 |
162 |
2,06 |
31,2 |
131 |
193 |
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Tabela nr 8 |
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10 |
80 |
-0,3 |
-0,223 |
0,777 |
65,3 |
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15 |
146 |
1,79 |
27,1 |
119 |
174 |
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Obliczanie przepływów maksymalnych rocznych metodą Dębskiego |
11 |
90 |
-0,73 |
-0,543 |
0,457 |
38,4 |
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20 |
131 |
1,52 |
23,0 |
108 |
155 |
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Rzeka: Wkra |
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Profil: Cieksyn |
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30 |
112 |
1,25 |
18,9 |
93,2 |
131 |
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Lp |
p% |
F(p,s) |
CvF(p,s) |
1+CvF(p,s) |
QMAXp% |
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50 |
84,0 |
0,978 |
14,8 |
69,2 |
98,8 |
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1 |
1 |
2,81 |
2,09 |
3,09 |
260 |
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2 |
2 |
2,598 |
1,93 |
2,93 |
246 |
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3 |
3 |
2,386 |
1,78 |
2,78 |
233 |
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4 |
5 |
1,75 |
1,30 |
2,30 |
193 |
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5 |
10 |
1,27 |
0,945 |
1,94 |
163 |
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Tabela nr 10 |
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6 |
15 |
0,889 |
0,661 |
1,66 |
140 |
Sprawdzenie jednorodnośći ciągów przepływów maksymalnych rocznych Qmaxr z okresu 1948-1964 testem Spearmana |
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7 |
20 |
0,762 |
0,567 |
1,57 |
132 |
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8 |
30 |
0,508 |
0,378 |
1,38 |
116 |
Rzeka: Wkra |
Stacja: Cieksyn |
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9 |
50 |
0 |
0,000 |
1,00 |
84,0 |
Rok |
Qmaxr |
Xi |
X^2i |
ciąg rosnący |
Okres |
Rangi |
Yi |
Xi-Yi=Di |
D^2i |
Y^2i |
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10 |
80 |
-0,3 |
-0,223 |
0,777 |
65,3 |
1948 |
70,2 |
1 |
1 |
22,7 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
-6 |
36 |
49 |
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11 |
90 |
-0,73 |
-0,543 |
0,457 |
38,4 |
1949 |
71,1 |
2 |
4 |
44,8 |
1 |
2 |
8 |
-6 |
36 |
64 |
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1950 |
55,7 |
3 |
9 |
47,9 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
-1 |
1 |
16 |
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Tabela nr 9 |
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1951 |
125 |
4 |
16 |
55,7 |
1 |
4 |
15 |
-11 |
121 |
225 |
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Tabela do obliczeń granic przedziałów ufności przeplywów maksymalnych rocznych. Metoda Dębskiego. |
1952 |
22,7 |
5 |
25 |
57,2 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
1 |
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1953 |
124 |
6 |
36 |
65,1 |
2 |
6 |
14 |
-8 |
64 |
196 |
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Rzeka: Wkra |
Profil: Cieksyn |
1954 |
44,8 |
7 |
49 |
70,2 |
1 |
7 |
2 |
5 |
25 |
4 |
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p% |
Qp |
F(p,s) |
sQp |
Pa=0,68 |
1955 |
57,2 |
8 |
64 |
71,1 |
1 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
9 |
25 |
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Q'p=Qp-sQp |
Q"p=Qp+sQp |
1956 |
95,7 |
9 |
81 |
71,8 |
2 |
9 |
12 |
-3 |
9 |
144 |
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1 |
260 |
5,53 |
83,8 |
176 |
343 |
1957 |
90,5 |
10 |
100 |
86 |
2 |
10 |
11 |
-1 |
1 |
121 |
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2 |
246 |
4,67 |
70,8 |
176 |
317 |
1958 |
153 |
11 |
121 |
90,5 |
2 |
11 |
16 |
-5 |
25 |
256 |
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3 |
233 |
3,82 |
57,9 |
175 |
291 |
1959 |
47,9 |
12 |
144 |
95,7 |
2 |
12 |
3 |
9 |
81 |
9 |
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5 |
193 |
2,97 |
45,0 |
148 |
238 |
1960 |
111 |
13 |
169 |
111 |
2 |
13 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
169,0 |
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10 |
163 |
2,06 |
31,2 |
132 |
195 |
1961 |
65,1 |
14 |
196 |
124 |
1 |
14 |
6 |
8 |
64 |
36 |
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15 |
140 |
1,79 |
27,1 |
112 |
167 |
1962 |
210,0 |
15 |
225 |
125 |
1 |
15 |
17 |
-2 |
4 |
289 |
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20 |
132 |
1,52 |
23,0 |
109 |
155 |
1963 |
86 |
16 |
256 |
153 |
2 |
16 |
10 |
6 |
36 |
100,0 |
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30 |
116 |
1,25 |
18,9 |
96,8 |
135 |
1964 |
71,8 |
17 |
289 |
210,0 |
2 |
17 |
9 |
8 |
64 |
81 |
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50 |
84,0 |
0,978 |
14,8 |
69,2 |
98,8 |
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suma |
153 |
1785 |
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592 |
1785 |
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Rs= |
0,834 |
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t= |
5,86 |
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ta=0,05= |
2,1314 |
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Przy t>ta=0,05 trend występuje |
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Wrtość krytyczna t(a,n) rozkładu t-Studenta wg tabeli wynosi 2,1314.Mamy zatem t>ta więc stwierdzamy, że |
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ciąg posiada trend. W zadaniu oznacza to, że Qmaxr w badanym okresie |
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ma tendecję przebiegu w jednym kierunku. |
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Sprawdzenie jednorodnośći ciągów przepływów maxymalnych rocznych |
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Qmaxr z okresy 1951-1970 testem Kruskala-Wallisa |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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Rzeka: Orzyc |
Stacja: Krosnosielc |
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1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
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Rangi T odpowiadające próbom |
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2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
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Próba 1 |
Próba 2 |
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1 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
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1951-1960 |
1961-1970 |
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1 |
5 |
1 |
5 |
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1 |
3 |
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2 |
6 |
2 |
6 |
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2 |
6 |
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1 |
7 |
1 |
7 |
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4 |
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1 |
8 |
1 |
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5 |
9 |
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9 |
2 |
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7 |
10 |
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2 |
10 |
2 |
10 |
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8 |
13 |
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1 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
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11 |
17 |
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1 |
12 |
2 |
12 |
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14 |
13 |
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2 |
13 |
2 |
13 |
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15 |
14 |
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1 |
14 |
1 |
14 |
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18 |
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1 |
15 |
1 |
15 |
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S Ti |
67 |
109 |
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2 |
16 |
2 |
16 |
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S Ti^2 |
4489 |
11881 |
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2 |
17 |
2 |
17 |
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c^2= |
-16,229 |
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Krytyczna wartość c^2 Pearsona dla a=0,05 wynosi 3,841. |
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Ponieważ 3,841>0,571 więc ciąg badany jest jednorodny. |
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