Tab. nr 1 Seria obserwacyjna przepływów maksymalnych rocznych WQ | ||||
Rzeka: Narew Profil: Ostrołęka | ||||
L.p. | Rok | WQ (m3/s) | ||
1 | 1951 | 729,0 | ||
2 | 1952 | 331,0 | ||
3 | 1953 | 529,0 | ||
4 | 1954 | 131,0 | ||
5 | 1955 | 438,0 | ||
6 | 1956 | 397,0 | ||
7 | 1957 | 480,0 | ||
8 | 1958 | 997,0 | ||
9 | 1959 | 174,0 | ||
10 | 1960 | 392,0 | ||
11 | 1961 | 208,0 | ||
12 | 1962 | 499,0 | ||
13 | 1963 | 214,0 | ||
14 | 1964 | 524,0 | ||
15 | 1965 | 418,0 | ||
16 | 1966 | 276,0 | ||
17 | 1967 | 521,0 | ||
18 | 1968 | 406,0 | ||
19 | 1969 | 153,0 | ||
20 | 1970 | 742,0 | ||
21 | 1971 | 473,0 | ||
22 | 1972 | 145,0 | ||
23 | 1973 | 183,0 | ||
24 | 1974 | 555,0 | ||
25 | 1975 | 400,0 | ||
26 | 1976 | 281,0 | ||
27 | 1977 | 288,0 | ||
28 | 1978 | 396,0 | ||
29 | 1979 | 1360,0 | ||
30 | 1980 | 366,0 | ||
31 | 1981 | 326,0 | ||
32 | 1982 | 362,0 | ||
33 | 1983 | 218,0 | ||
34 | 1984 | 129,0 | ||
35 | 1985 | 286,0 | ||
36 | 1986 | 262,0 | ||
37 | 1987 | 254,0 | ||
38 | 1988 | 434,0 | ||
39 | 1989 | 186,0 | ||
40 | 1990 | 169,0 |
Tab. nr 2 Badanie jednorodności statystycznej ciągów przepływów maksymalnych rocznych | ||||||
Rzeka: Narew Profil: Ostrołęka Okres: 1951-1990 | ||||||
Test sumy rang | ||||||
k - liczba prób | L.p. | WQ (m3/s) | WQ rosnący | Xi ranga | Próba | |
I próba | 1 | 729,0 | 129,0 | 1 | 2 | |
2 | 331,0 | 131,0 | 2 | 1 | ||
3 | 529,0 | 145,0 | 3 | 2 | ||
4 | 131,0 | 153,0 | 4 | 1 | ||
5 | 438,0 | 169,0 | 5 | 2 | ||
6 | 397,0 | 174,0 | 6 | 1 | ||
7 | 480,0 | 183,0 | 7 | 2 | ||
8 | 997,0 | 186,0 | 8 | 2 | ||
9 | 174,0 | 208,0 | 9 | 1 | ||
10 | 392,0 | 214,0 | 10 | 1 | ||
11 | 208,0 | 218,0 | 11 | 2 | ||
12 | 499,0 | 254,0 | 12 | 2 | ||
13 | 214,0 | 262,0 | 13 | 2 | ||
14 | 524,0 | 276,0 | 14 | 1 | ||
15 | 418,0 | 281,0 | 15 | 2 | ||
16 | 276,0 | 286,0 | 16 | 2 | ||
17 | 521,0 | 288,0 | 17 | 2 | ||
18 | 406,0 | 326,0 | 18 | 2 | ||
19 | 153,0 | 331,0 | 19 | 1 | ||
20 | 742,0 | 362,0 | 20 | 2 | ||
II próba | 21 | 473,0 | 366,0 | 21 | 2 | |
22 | 145,0 | 392,0 | 22 | 1 | ||
23 | 183,0 | 396,0 | 23 | 2 | ||
24 | 555,0 | 397,0 | 24 | 1 | ||
25 | 400,0 | 400,0 | 25 | 2 | ||
26 | 281,0 | 406,0 | 26 | 1 | ||
27 | 288,0 | 418,0 | 27 | 1 | ||
28 | 396,0 | 434,0 | 28 | 2 | ||
29 | 1360,0 | 438,0 | 29 | 1 | ||
30 | 366,0 | 473,0 | 30 | 2 | ||
31 | 326,0 | 480,0 | 31 | 1 | ||
32 | 362,0 | 499,0 | 32 | 1 | ||
33 | 218,0 | 521,0 | 33 | 1 | ||
34 | 129,0 | 524,0 | 34 | 1 | ||
35 | 286,0 | 529,0 | 35 | 1 | ||
36 | 262,0 | 555,0 | 36 | 2 | ||
37 | 254,0 | 729,0 | 37 | 1 | ||
38 | 434,0 | 742,0 | 38 | 1 | ||
39 | 186,0 | 997,0 | 39 | 1 | ||
40 | 169,0 | 1360,0 | 40 | 2 | ||
Obliczenia: | ||||||
N £ 40 | N - liczebność prób | |||||
k = 2 | k - liczba prób | |||||
Ti - suma rang | ||||||
T1 = | 471 | |||||
T2 = | 349 | |||||
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Tab. nr 3 Ciąg rozdzielczy przepływów maksymalnych WQ | |||||
Rzeka: Narew Profil: Ostrołęka Okres: 1951-1990 | |||||
L.p. | WQ (m3/s) | p % | |||
1 | 1360,0 | 2,44 | |||
2 | 997,0 | 4,88 | |||
3 | 742,0 | 7,32 | |||
4 | 729,0 | 9,76 | |||
5 | 555,0 | 12,20 | |||
6 | 529,0 | 14,63 | |||
7 | 524,0 | 17,07 | |||
8 | 521,0 | 19,51 | |||
9 | 499,0 | 21,95 | |||
10 | 480,0 | 24,39 | |||
11 | 473,0 | 26,83 | |||
12 | 438,0 | 29,27 | |||
13 | 434,0 | 31,71 | |||
14 | 418,0 | 34,15 | |||
15 | 406,0 | 36,59 | |||
16 | 400,0 | 39,02 | |||
17 | 397,0 | 41,46 | |||
18 | 396,0 | 43,90 | |||
19 | 392,0 | 46,34 | |||
20 | 366,0 | 48,78 | |||
21 | 362,0 | 51,22 | |||
22 | 331,0 | 53,66 | |||
23 | 326,0 | 56,10 | |||
24 | 288,0 | 58,54 | |||
25 | 286,0 | 60,98 | |||
26 | 281,0 | 63,41 | |||
27 | 276,0 | 65,85 | |||
28 | 262,0 | 68,29 | |||
29 | 254,0 | 70,73 | |||
30 | 218,0 | 73,17 | |||
31 | 214,0 | 75,61 | |||
32 | 208,0 | 78,05 | |||
33 | 186,0 | 80,49 | |||
34 | 183,0 | 82,93 | |||
35 | 174,0 | 85,37 | |||
36 | 169,0 | 87,80 | |||
37 | 153,0 | 90,24 | |||
38 | 145,0 | 92,68 | |||
39 | 131,0 | 95,12 | |||
40 | 129,0 | 97,56 |
Tab. nr 4 Obliczanie przepływów maksymalnych WQ o założonym prawdopodobieństwie przewyższenia | |||||||||||||||||
Decyle: | |||||||||||||||||
d1 = | 640 | Rzeka: Narew Profil: Ostrołęka Okres: 1951-1990 | |||||||||||||||
d5 = | 320 | L.p. | p % | ![]() |
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d9 = | 170 | 1 | 0,1 | 4,93 | 3,62 | 4,62 | 1478,55 | ||||||||||
d10 = | 120 | ` | 2 | 0,2 | 4,39 | 3,22 | 4,22 | 1351,65 | |||||||||
3 | 0,5 | 3,7 | 2,72 | 3,72 | 1189,5 | ||||||||||||
Odchylenie decylowe: | ![]() |
4 | 1 | 3,17 | 2,33 | 3,33 | 1064,95 | ||||||||||
V= | 235 | m3/s | 5 | 2 | 2,64 | 1,94 | 2,94 | 940,4 | |||||||||
6 | 3 | 2,31 | 1,70 | 2,70 | 862,85 | ||||||||||||
Współczynnik zmienności: | 7 | 5 | 1,93 | 1,42 | 2,42 | 773,55 | |||||||||||
8 | 10 | 1,37 | 1,01 | 2,01 | 641,95 | ||||||||||||
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9 | 20 | 0,8 | 0,59 | 1,59 | 508 | |||||||||||
CV = | 0,73 | (-) | 10 | 30 | 0,46 | 0,34 | 1,34 | 428,1 | |||||||||
11 | 50 | 0 | 0,00 | 1,00 | 320 | ||||||||||||
Obliczam: | 12 | 70 | -0,33 | -0,24 | 0,76 | 242,45 | |||||||||||
13 | 80 | -0,48 | -0,35 | 0,65 | 207,2 | ||||||||||||
= | 1,2 | (-) | ® | S = | 0,74 | 14 | 90 | -0,63 | -0,46 | 0,54 | 171,95 | ||||||
15 | 95 | -0,71 | -0,52 | 0,48 | 153,15 | ||||||||||||
Weryfikacja: | 16 | 99 | -0,8 | -0,59 | 0,41 | 132 | |||||||||||
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17 | 100 | -0,84 | -0,62 | 0,38 | 122,6 | |||||||||||
Q10%= | 641,95 | =![]() |
= | 1,37 | |||||||||||||
Q90%= | 171,95 | =![]() |
= | -0,63 | |||||||||||||
Q100%= | 122,6 | =![]() |
= | -0,84 | |||||||||||||
Odchylenia decyli: | |||||||||||||||||
delta | d1 = | 0,304687499999989 | |||||||||||||||
delta | d9 = | 1,14705882352941 | |||||||||||||||
delta | d10 = | 2,16666666666669 |