PP 2008 14

Wykład 14

Unia Gospodarcza i Walutowa

Korzyści

Korzyści
ze wzrostu handlu

ze wzrostu handlu
i wyeliminowania

i wyeliminowania
ryzyka na rynku

ryzyka na rynku
walutowym

walutowym. .

Koszty rezygnacji

Koszty rezygnacji
z autonomicznej

z autonomicznej
polityki pieniężnej

polityki pieniężnej

Mundel 1961

EMU

Po rozpadzie systemu w Bretton Woods wahania kursów

okazały się znacznie większe niż wcześniej przypuszczano

-15%

-10%

-5%

10%

15%

20%

1961Q1 1965Q1 1969Q1 1973Q1 1977Q1 1981Q1 1985Q1 1989Q1 1993Q1 1997Q1

DEM/USD

Korzyści z pozbycie

Korzyści z pozbycie
się ryzyka

się ryzyka
negatywnych szoków

negatywnych szoków
wywoływanych

wywoływanych
przez wahania kursu

przez wahania kursu
walutowego

walutowego

Koszty rezygnacji

Koszty rezygnacji
z autonomicznej

z autonomicznej
polityki pieniężnej

polityki pieniężnej

Mundel 1973

EMU

Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade: A Study by the Research Department

Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade: A Study by the Research Department
of the IMF”,

of the IMF”, IMF Occasional Paper

IMF Occasional Paper, No. 28, IMF Washington, July 1984

, No. 28, IMF Washington, July 1984

Wei Shang

Wei Shang--jin, „Currency Hedging and Goods Trade”,

jin, „Currency Hedging and Goods Trade”, European Economic

European Economic

Review

Review, vol. 43, 1999, pp. 1371

, vol. 43, 1999, pp. 1371--1394.

1394.

••

A puzzle in empirical international finance is

A puzzle in empirical international finance is
the difficulty in identifying a large and

the difficulty in identifying a large and
negative effect of exchange rate volatility on

negative effect of exchange rate volatility on
trade.

trade.

••

The pro

The pro--trade effect of the euro (i.e. Rose

trade effect of the euro (i.e. Rose

effect) is modest

effect) is modest –

– somewhere between 5%

somewhere between 5%

and 15%.

••

The pro

The pro--trade effect varies a great deal

trade effect varies a great deal

across nations. Spain seems to have been

across nations. Spain seems to have been
the biggest gainer while Greece’s gain is

the biggest gainer while Greece’s gain is
estimated to be nil or even negative.

estimated to be nil or even negative.

Richard E. Baldwin, “In or out: does it make a difference?”

Richard E. Baldwin, “In or out: does it make a difference?”, , 9 May 2006

9 May 2006

Doświadczenia strefy euro

Paul De Grauwe

Paul De Grauwe, , On Monetary and Political Union

On Monetary and Political Union

Paper prepared for the CESifo Workshop on “Enlarging the Euro Area”, 24

Paper prepared for the CESifo Workshop on “Enlarging the Euro Area”, 24
November 2006

November 2006

••

One of the surprises of the functioning of

One of the surprises of the functioning of
the Eurozone has been the extent to which

the Eurozone has been the extent to which
the competitive positions of the Eurozone

the competitive positions of the Eurozone
countries have diverged.

countries have diverged.

••

Germany which by applying tough wage

Germany which by applying tough wage
moderation since 1999, dramatically

moderation since 1999, dramatically
improved its competitive position within

improved its competitive position within
the Eurozone at the expense of other

the Eurozone at the expense of other
countries.

countries.

Olivier Blanchard,

Olivier Blanchard, A Macroeconomic survey of Europe

A Macroeconomic survey of Europe, May 2008

, May 2008, ,

http://econ

http://econ--www.mit.edu/faculty/blanchar/papers

www.mit.edu/faculty/blanchar/papers

••

Portugal: The story behind the scenes:

••

1995

1995--2001. Boom

2001. Boom from anticipations

from anticipations of

entry into the Euro, a bright future, and

entry into the Euro, a bright future, and
lower interest rates.

lower interest rates.

••

Steady decrease in employment. Steady

Steady decrease in employment. Steady
increase in wages, decrease in

increase in wages, decrease in
competitiveness

competitiveness, and l

, and large account

arge account

Skumulowany wzrost ULC: 1999-2007

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

ria

lan

ło

rtu

lia

Irl

““Monitoring Labo

Monitoring Labouur Cost Developments Across Euro Area Countries, ECB,

r Cost Developments Across Euro Area Countries, ECB,

Monthly Bulletin, November 2008, s. 70

REER

-15%

-10%

-5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1

FRANCJA

NIEMCY

HISZPANIA

WŁOCHY

Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros, “Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,

Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros, “Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
House Prices and Structural Reforms”,

House Prices and Structural Reforms”, Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage

Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.

Nr.

271/2006,

271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart

Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006

, 2006, p. 29

, p. 29

••

These large competitive positions did not

translate earlier into different growth rates

because of offsetting tendencies in the

housing markets.

••

The low interest rate environment fostered

by the ECB’s policy and the global

developments led to a housing boom in a

number of countries, including Italy.

••

Fundamental problems restraining

Portugal’s economy are home

Portugal’s economy are home--grown:

grown:

••

wide current account

••

fiscal deficits

••

household, corporate and government debt

••

substantial competitiveness gap

••

Portugal have been living beyond its means

for many years, borrowing via banking

system from the rest of the world, raising

external indebtedness

Portugal: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation

Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros, “Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,

Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros, “Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
House Prices and Structural Reforms”,

House Prices and Structural Reforms”, Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage

Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.

Nr.

271/2006,

271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart

Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006

, 2006, p. 29

, p. 29

••

When Italy fell into recession in 1993, the

lira depreciated substantially. Producer

price inflation accelerated, but the total

increase in prices was much less than the

depreciation of the exchange rate. As a

result, It

result, Ita

aly regained competitiveness.

ly regained competitiveness.

••

This time, Italy cannot regain

competitiveness through nominal

exchange rate depreciation.

Paul De Grauwe

Paul De Grauwe, , On Monetary and Political Union

On Monetary and Political Union Paper prepared for the

Paper prepared for the

CESifo Workshop on “Enlarging the Euro Area”, 24 November 2006

••

Thus the latter have worked as “beggar

Thus the latter have worked as “beggar--

thy

thy--neighbor” (wage) policies forcing other

neighbor” (wage) policies forcing other

countries in turn to also institute drastic

policies of wage moderation.

••

The correction mechanism is likely to be

painful. Other countries will be forced to

intensify their policies of wage moderation,

inducing the former again to restrict wage

increases. All this is adding to deflationary

tendencies characterized by low growth in

consumption and investment and by

increasing unemployment

••

Unless productivity is raised, the burden of

adjustment will fall on consumption and

investment.

••

A combination of market rigidities and weak

competitiveness may lead to a prolonged

period of difficulty slow

period of difficulty slow--growth adjustment.

growth adjustment.

••

Averting this scenario, and regaining

competitiveness within EMU, will require

implementation of a bold supply

implementation of a bold supply--oriented

oriented

reform agenda, with emphasis on

••

enhancing product market competition and

labor market flexibility.

Portugal: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation

Polska w strefie euro

Polska w strefie euro::

Ryzyka związane z wejściem do unii walutowej

kraju doganiającego ekonomicznie kraje zamożne

Co chroni Polskę przed

Co chroni Polskę przed
ryzykiem utraty

ryzykiem utraty
konkurencyjności?

konkurencyjności?

Źródło

Źródło: : Hans

Hans--Werner Sinn, The Pathological Export Boom and the Bazaar

Werner Sinn, The Pathological Export Boom and the Bazaar

Effect. How to Solve the German Puzzle?, CESifo Working PaperNo. 1708, s. 5

Eksport krajów euro poza strefę euro

12%

16%

EEC

Azja

Niemcy

Francja

Włochy

Hiszpania

Polska: eksport

Niemcy; 25,0%

Francja; 6,2%

Włochy; 6,1%

Anglia; 5,7%

Czechy; 5,6%

Rosja; 5,4%

Ukraina; 4,0%

Holandia; 3,8%

Szwecja; 3,2%

Węgry; 2,8%

Pozostałe; 32,2%

Wydajność w krajach Europy Środkowej w relacji

do średniej w EU15 po uwzględnieniu niższych

kosztów pracy (bez ich uwzględnienia: 25%)

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

uł

ria

ło

Ło

ęg

Źródło:Michael Marrese, The convergence of CEEMEA countries amid global recession, October 2008

J. David Lopez Hans

J. David Lopez Hans--Werner Sinn,

Werner Sinn,--Salido, Fernando Restoy

Salido, Fernando Restoy, , Inflation

Inflation

Differentials in EMU: The Spanish Case

Differentials in EMU: The Spanish Case, , Banco De Espana, Documents de

Banco De Espana, Documents de

Trabajo, No. 0514, 2005

••

Persistent inflation differentials of the

Persistent inflation differentials of the
Spanish economy are not linked to a

Spanish economy are not linked to a
structural catching

structural catching--up process, thus the

up process, thus the

self correction mechanisms are relatively

self correction mechanisms are relatively
weak, and may generate long

weak, and may generate long--lasting losses

lasting losses

in competitiveness.

Co –

– oprócz efektu BSE

oprócz efektu BSE

–

– może prowadzić do

może prowadzić do

wzrostu inflacji?

Euro adoption in CEE

Euro adoption in CEE. Special report, Erste bank, May 8, 2008

. Special report, Erste bank, May 8, 2008, s. 4

, s. 4

Peter Hoeller, David Rae

Peter Hoeller, David Rae, , Housing Markets and Adjustment in Monetary Union

Housing Markets and Adjustment in Monetary Union, ,

OECD, Economics

OECD, Economics Department Working Paper No. 550, April 17

Department Working Paper No. 550, April 17

••

The housing market often plays a central

role in magnifying cycles.

••

Backward

Backward--looking or extrapolative

looking or extrapolative

expectations in the housing markets in the

hosing market can be highly destabilizing

as temporary shocks are magnified and

create large and long

create large and long--lasting market

lasting market

bubbles.

Sebastian Royo

Sebastian Royo, , The Euro and Economic reforms: The Case of Spain?

The Euro and Economic reforms: The Case of Spain?

Paper presented at the Conference “The Euro and the Dollar” University of

Paper presented at the Conference “The Euro and the Dollar” University of
Miami, April 25, 2006

Miami, April 25, 2006

••

The real estate bubble has overshadowed the

The real estate bubble has overshadowed the
lack of competitiveness of the Spanish

lack of competitiveness of the Spanish
economy.

economy.

••

While the construction sector is booming

While the construction sector is booming
(over 700,000 houses were built in Spain in

(over 700,000 houses were built in Spain in
2004, more than the total in France, Germany,

2004, more than the total in France, Germany,
Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg combined)

Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg combined),,

••

manufacturing production regressed 0,4

manufacturing production regressed 0,4
percent in

percent in 2005

2005

(the automotive sector

declined almost 9 percent in

declined almost 9 percent in 2005

2005

) and

••

exports

exports was

was not experiencing almost any

not experiencing almost any

growth.

Jaki powstrzymać boom

Jaki powstrzymać boom
na rynku hipotecznym?

na rynku hipotecznym?

••

A rational property tax is essential for

A rational property tax is essential for
improving economic stability and resource

improving economic stability and resource
allocation.

allocation.

••

To maximize the effectiveness of the

To maximize the effectiveness of the
property tax as a national economic

property tax as a national economic
stabilizer, and to take it out of the political

stabilizer, and to take it out of the political
arena where politicians may be tempted to

arena where politicians may be tempted to
manipulate rates for short

manipulate rates for short--term electoral

term electoral

advantage, the rate setting power should be

advantage, the rate setting power should be
handed to the Bank of England

handed to the Bank of England.

John Muellbauer

John Muellbauer, , The U.K. and the Euro

The U.K. and the Euro –– The Role of Asymmetries

The Role of Asymmetries

in Housing and Credit Market

in Housing and Credit Market. . W:

W: Submissions on EMU from leading

Submissions on EMU from leading . .

academics

academics, HM Treasury 2003

, HM Treasury 2003, s. 193

, s. 193--194

194

Jak zabezpieczyć się

Jak zabezpieczyć się
przed utratą

przed utratą
konkurencyjności w

konkurencyjności w
strefie euro?

strefie euro?

A. Macoun, B. Kramarz, E. Nowersztern, J. Kofod, M. Lundgren

A. Macoun, B. Kramarz, E. Nowersztern, J. Kofod, M. Lundgren, , The Danish

The Danish

Design Cluste

Design Cluster,

r, May 4, 2007

May 4, 2007

••

30% of the Danish workforce changes jobs

every year, while an average Dane only

remains with the same company for 8 years

••

High level of education spending (at 8% of

GDP, the highest in the world, with

additional training through the FlexSecurity

system)

••

In 2001 the government formed the

Globalization Council, chaired by the Prime

Minister, consisting of business leaders,

academic representatives, global experts,

and labor union spokespersons. In 2006,

the government presented its globalisation

strategy.

••

I have been struck at how, in many cases,

differences in productivity can be traced to

differences in the competitive environment

rather than from access to technology, or

capital, or skilled labor.

••

More intense competition truly forces firms

to use the existing technology more

effectively, and forces inefficient firms out.

Olivier Blanchard

Olivier Blanchard, , “Is there a viable European social and economic model?”,

“Is there a viable European social and economic model?”,

Van Lanschot lecture, Tilburg University, july 2006

••

Against the background of still highly sheltered

domestic markets, the efficacy of competition

enforcement is key.

••

Increased independence accorded to the future

Comision Nacional de Competencia

Comision Nacional de Competencia..

••

To promote such independence, Parliament will

need to exercise its new consultative role in the

appointment of the Commission’s members.

••

The independence of sectoral regulators should

also be enhanced, with an extension of

Parliamentary oversight to the nomination of all

their members,

••

And the establishment of an arm’s length

relationship with the relevant sectoral ministers.

Spain: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation

Jakie czynniki zmniejszałyby

Jakie czynniki zmniejszałyby
zmniejszać możliwą

zmniejszać możliwą
procykliczność wpływu

procykliczność wpływu
polityki pieniężnej EBC na

polityki pieniężnej EBC na
polską gospodarkę?

polską gospodarkę?

••

Reformy strukturalne

••

deregulacja rynków,

••

silne preferencje dla wydatków na naukę i

silne preferencje dla wydatków na naukę i
oświatę (Szwecja, Finlandia),

oświatę (Szwecja, Finlandia),

••

zwiększenie elastyczności rynków pracy

zwiększenie elastyczności rynków pracy
(Dania, Holandia)

(Dania, Holandia)

••

Regulacje zmniejszające ryzyko pojawienia

Regulacje zmniejszające ryzyko pojawienia
się niestabilnych boomów kredytowych

się niestabilnych boomów kredytowych

••

Rada Polityki Fiskalnej: wydłużenie

Rada Polityki Fiskalnej: wydłużenie
horyzontu decyzyjnego; uwolnienie polityki

horyzontu decyzyjnego; uwolnienie polityki
fiskalnej od wpływu cyklu wyborczego

fiskalnej od wpływu cyklu wyborczego

Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros, “Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,

Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros, “Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
House Prices and Structural Reforms”,

House Prices and Structural Reforms”, Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage

Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.

Nr.

271/2006,

271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart

Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006

, 2006, p. 29

, p. 29

••

Without political union, the

ECB lacks a

public constituency supporting its

monetary stance

in the face of political

pressure. Public support was a cornerstone

for the German

Bundesbank’s ability

pursue low

pursue low--inflation hard

inflation hard--currency policy.

currency policy.

••

Monetary union is thus likely to undergo a

major stress

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