With Big Hands Come Big Losses

Bet a hand the way that it deserves to be bet

In an online $2-$4 no-limit hold'em (NLH) game, a late-position player open-raised to $8. For two hours, he had raised preflop more than anyone else, but this was only the second time he had doubled the blinds rather than raise more. I didn't see his first hand, but his post-flop play convinced me that he had an overpair. My guess was that he couldn't help raising less preflop with big hands, and more with weaker ones. Consequently, my instincts told me that he had a premium pocket pair again this time, probably aces or kings. Everyone folded to me in the big blind, and I called with the 7
5
.

The flop came A
8
2
. We both checked. The turn was the 6
. I checked, he bet $10, and I called. The river was the 4
, for a board of A
8
2
6
4
. I bet $20 with the nut straight; he raised to $50. I reraised him to $200 total. He let the clock tick down before calling me with the A
A
. I took down the pot, while he raged in the chat box before leaving the game.

I make no claims of spectacular play. Indeed, I was very lucky, but his numerous mistakes were what enabled me to get lucky. In fact, I believe he misplayed every street. How did he manage to go 0-for-4? Let's take a look, so that you can avoid making similar errors yourself.

He Raised Too Little Preflop with A-A
You want to avoid falling into any patterns, so that you can prevent predictability, but this is one of the worst NLH patterns of all. You've waited a long time for such a good hand, and now you'll potentially ruin it in three ways:

1. Your best chance of winning a sizable pot with A-A comes from having an opponent flop top pair and pay you off the whole way. But keeping the pot small at the start reduces your realistic bet sizes for the entire hand, drastically hurting your chances to win a large pot. If your hand holds up, you'll probably take down a medium-sized pot at best.

2. You're letting in various hands for a very cheap price, and once that happens, there's no telling what kind of flop is safe. When someone beats you with a set of threes (or the 7
5
), blame yourself before blaming bad luck.

3. If someone overtakes your aces, you'll be much more inclined to pay them off than you normally would. Players who slow-play aces never seem to take this into account, but since it is a reality, it can't be ignored. After waiting so long for them, it's really tough to lay them down, even when the action suggests that you're beat. Given that you're more likely to lose big when you lose, you must give your opponents significantly unfavorable pot odds toward trying to beat you. You can't take into account just the current size of the pot; you also must consider the money you potentially will lose on future streets if your aces get cracked. For me, this meant that calling an extra $4 with the 7
5
was a no-brainer. If I got lucky, I could expect to get paid off handsomely.

He Checked the Flop
Having already been pegged as a contrary bettor (raising less with monster hands and vice versa), he made a very predictable play, and therefore it accomplished nothing. Did he really think I was going to put him on a weak hand? For that matter, would he check any hand other than a set of aces?

I seriously doubt it. He was heads up with position, and his lone opponent checked. I would expect him to bet the flop almost every time, regardless of what he had. Given his contrariness, it was a near certainty that he would check only a monster hand. His minimum raise preflop, combined with checking the flop, was essentially the same as turning his pocket aces faceup.

Once that happened, he had nothing to gain and everything to lose. He wasn't going to get paid off by anything less than three aces, but if I picked up a draw on the turn, I knew that I'd have a chance at a big payoff with a lucky river.

He Bet Too Little on the Turn
Granted, he had no way of knowing that I had picked up a monster draw. But regardless of what I had, none of his potential outcomes are particularly attractive. Having put him on a set of aces, I've already established that I'm not paying him off with any worse made hand. So, the only hands with which I would call his $10 bet were a flush draw or an open-end straight draw. Given my expected payoff, calling $10 with either one was an easy decision.

As it turns out, I had both draws (13 outs) and would call almost any bet. But, hypothetically, if I had only one draw and he had made a stronger bet, I might have thought twice about calling, even with my huge implied odds.

Keep in mind that this logic is based on his flopping a set of aces, my realizing that he had flopped a set, and possibly his understanding that his play signaled a set. But let's just say that he was up against a more unobservant player. He still needs to ask himself what kind of made hand that player could have, such that he would get paid off. It's highly unlikely that someone would call with anything less than the case ace, and if he's lucky enough for someone to have aces or better, he's asking for only a $10 payoff? It's pretty counterintuitive. He would be wasting a lot of lucky circumstances on a small pot that he probably wouldn't even remember.

He Paid Me Off for $200 on the River
I know you're thinking that would be a massive laydown for him to make, but what does he put me on? Two pair? A bluff? He needs to be aware of how his betting pattern comes across to a rational player. Once he realizes that he's given every indication of having a monster hand, yet his opponent is still reraising him on the river, he has to consider the possibility that his set is no good. It's a tough laydown, yes, but certainly not impossible.

In Closing
Premium hands are hard to come by. Even worse, they're hard to lay down. If you have a tough time releasing a big hand, you're no different from anyone else, but you can compensate for it by betting the hand the way that it deserves to be bet. When you get called and win, you'll get a payoff worthy of your big hand. And when you lose, at least you did your best to protect it against all comers. Betting small and losing big creates some of the worst feelings you can have in NLH. Try not to let it happen to you.

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