Wykład 14
Wykład 14
Mundel 1961
Mundel 1961
Unia Gospodarcza i Walutowa
Unia Gospodarcza i Walutowa
Korzyści
Korzyści
ze wzrostu handlu Koszty rezygnacji
ze wzrostu handlu Koszty rezygnacji
i wyeliminowania z autonomicznej
i wyeliminowania z autonomicznej
ryzyka na rynku polityki pieniężnej
ryzyka na rynku polityki pieniężnej
walutowym.
walutowym.
EMU
EMU
Po rozpadzie systemu w Bretton Woods wahania kursów
Mundel 1973
Mundel 1973
okazały się znacznie większe niż wcześniej przypuszczano
20%
Korzyści z pozbycie
Korzyści z pozbycie
15%
DEM/USD
siÄ™ ryzyka
siÄ™ ryzyka
Koszty rezygnacji
Koszty rezygnacji
negatywnych szoków
10% negatywnych szoków
z autonomicznej
z autonomicznej
wywoływanych
wywoływanych
polityki pieniężnej
polityki pieniężnej
5% przez wahania kursu
przez wahania kursu
walutowego
walutowego
0%
-5%
-10%
EMU
EMU
-15%
1961Q1 1965Q1 1969Q1 1973Q1 1977Q1 1981Q1 1985Q1 1989Q1 1993Q1 1997Q1
" The pro-trade effect of the euro (i.e. Rose
" The pro-trade effect of the euro (i.e. Rose
" A puzzle in empirical international finance is
" A puzzle in empirical international finance is
effect) is modest  somewhere between 5%
effect) is modest  somewhere between 5%
the difficulty in identifying a large and
the difficulty in identifying a large and
and 15%.
and 15%.
negative effect of exchange rate volatility on
negative effect of exchange rate volatility on
" The pro-trade effect varies a great deal
" The pro-trade effect varies a great deal
trade.
trade.
across nations. Spain seems to have been
across nations. Spain seems to have been
the biggest gainer while Greece s gain is
the biggest gainer while Greece s gain is
estimated to be nil or even negative.
estimated to be nil or even negative.
Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade: A Study by the Research Department
Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade: A Study by the Research Department
of the IMF , IMF Occasional Paper, No. 28, IMF Washington, July 1984
of the IMF , IMF Occasional Paper, No. 28, IMF Washington, July 1984
Wei Shang-jin,  Currency Hedging and Goods Trade , European Economic
Wei Shang-jin,  Currency Hedging and Goods Trade , European Economic
Richard E. Baldwin,  In or out: does it make a difference? , 9 May 2006
Richard E. Baldwin,  In or out: does it make a difference? , 9 May 2006
Review, vol. 43, 1999, pp. 1371-1394.
Review, vol. 43, 1999, pp. 1371-1394.
1
" One of the surprises of the functioning of
" One of the surprises of the functioning of
the Eurozone has been the extent to which
the Eurozone has been the extent to which
the competitive positions of the Eurozone
the competitive positions of the Eurozone
countries have diverged.
countries have diverged.
" Germany which by applying tough wage
" Germany which by applying tough wage
moderation since 1999, dramatically
moderation since 1999, dramatically
improved its competitive position within
improved its competitive position within
Doświadczenia strefy euro the Eurozone at the expense of other
Doświadczenia strefy euro the Eurozone at the expense of other
countries.
countries.
Paul De Grauwe, On Monetary and Political Union
Paul De Grauwe, On Monetary and Political Union
Paper prepared for the CESifo Workshop on  Enlarging the Euro Area , 24
Paper prepared for the CESifo Workshop on  Enlarging the Euro Area , 24
November 2006
November 2006
Skumulowany wzrost ULC: 1999-2007
35%
30%
" Portugal: The story behind the scenes:
" Portugal: The story behind the scenes: 25%
" 1995-2001. Boom from anticipations of
" 1995-2001. Boom from anticipations of 20%
entry into the Euro, a bright future, and
entry into the Euro, a bright future, and
15%
lower interest rates.
lower interest rates.
10%
" Steady decrease in employment. Steady
" Steady decrease in employment. Steady
5%
increase in wages, decrease in
increase in wages, decrease in
0%
competitiveness, and large account
competitiveness, and large account
Olivier Blanchard, A Macroeconomic survey of Europe, May 2008,
Olivier Blanchard, A Macroeconomic survey of Europe, May 2008,
 Monitoring Labour Cost Developments Across Euro Area Countries, ECB,
 Monitoring Labour Cost Developments Across Euro Area Countries, ECB,
http://econ-www.mit.edu/faculty/blanchar/papers
http://econ-www.mit.edu/faculty/blanchar/papers
Monthly Bulletin, November 2008, s. 70
Monthly Bulletin, November 2008, s. 70
30%
" These large competitive positions did not
" These large competitive positions did not
25%
translate earlier into different growth rates
translate earlier into different growth rates
because of offsetting tendencies in the
because of offsetting tendencies in the
20%
WA
OCHY
REER
housing markets.
housing markets.
15% HISZPANIA
" The low interest rate environment fostered
" The low interest rate environment fostered
by the ECB s policy and the global
by the ECB s policy and the global
10%
developments led to a housing boom in a
developments led to a housing boom in a
5%
number of countries, including Italy.
number of countries, including Italy.
0%
FRANCJA
-5%
-10%
NIEMCY
Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros,  Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros,  Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
-15%
House Prices and Structural Reforms , Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.
House Prices and Structural Reforms , Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.
1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1
271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006, p. 29
271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006, p. 29
2
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" Fundamental problems restraining
" Fundamental problems restraining
Portugal s economy are home-grown:
Portugal s economy are home-grown:
" When Italy fell into recession in 1993, the
" When Italy fell into recession in 1993, the
lira depreciated substantially. Producer
lira depreciated substantially. Producer
price inflation accelerated, but the total
price inflation accelerated, but the total
" wide current account
" wide current account
increase in prices was much less than the
increase in prices was much less than the
" fiscal deficits
" fiscal deficits
depreciation of the exchange rate. As a
depreciation of the exchange rate. As a
" household, corporate and government debt
" household, corporate and government debt
result, Italy regained competitiveness.
result, Italy regained competitiveness.
" substantial competitiveness gap
" substantial competitiveness gap
" This time, Italy cannot regain
" This time, Italy cannot regain
competitiveness through nominal
competitiveness through nominal
exchange rate depreciation.
exchange rate depreciation.
" Portugal have been living beyond its means
" Portugal have been living beyond its means
for many years, borrowing via banking
for many years, borrowing via banking
system from the rest of the world, raising
system from the rest of the world, raising
external indebtedness
external indebtedness
Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros,  Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros,  Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
House Prices and Structural Reforms , Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.
House Prices and Structural Reforms , Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.
Portugal: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation
Portugal: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation
271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006, p. 29
271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006, p. 29
" Thus the latter have worked as  beggar- " Unless productivity is raised, the burden of
" Thus the latter have worked as  beggar- " Unless productivity is raised, the burden of
thy-neighbor (wage) policies forcing other adjustment will fall on consumption and
thy-neighbor (wage) policies forcing other adjustment will fall on consumption and
countries in turn to also institute drastic investment.
countries in turn to also institute drastic investment.
policies of wage moderation.
policies of wage moderation.
" A combination of market rigidities and weak
" A combination of market rigidities and weak
" The correction mechanism is likely to be competitiveness may lead to a prolonged
" The correction mechanism is likely to be competitiveness may lead to a prolonged
painful. Other countries will be forced to period of difficulty slow-growth adjustment.
painful. Other countries will be forced to period of difficulty slow-growth adjustment.
intensify their policies of wage moderation,
intensify their policies of wage moderation,
" Averting this scenario, and regaining
" Averting this scenario, and regaining
inducing the former again to restrict wage
inducing the former again to restrict wage
competitiveness within EMU, will require
competitiveness within EMU, will require
increases. All this is adding to deflationary
increases. All this is adding to deflationary
implementation of a bold supply-oriented
implementation of a bold supply-oriented
tendencies characterized by low growth in
tendencies characterized by low growth in
reform agenda, with emphasis on
reform agenda, with emphasis on
consumption and investment and by
consumption and investment and by
" enhancing product market competition and
" enhancing product market competition and
increasing unemployment
increasing unemployment
labor market flexibility.
labor market flexibility.
Paul De Grauwe, On Monetary and Political Union Paper prepared for the
Paul De Grauwe, On Monetary and Political Union Paper prepared for the
Portugal: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation
Portugal: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation
CESifo Workshop on  Enlarging the Euro Area , 24 November 2006
CESifo Workshop on  Enlarging the Euro Area , 24 November 2006
Co chroni PolskÄ™ przed
Co chroni PolskÄ™ przed
ryzykiem utraty
ryzykiem utraty
konkurencyjności?
konkurencyjności?
Polska w strefie euro:
Polska w strefie euro:
Ryzyka związane z wejściem do unii walutowej
Ryzyka związane z wejściem do unii walutowej
kraju doganiającego ekonomicznie kraje zamożne
kraju doganiającego ekonomicznie kraje zamożne
3
Eksport krajów euro poza strefę euro
16%
Niemcy Francja
WÅ‚ochy Hiszpania
12%
8%
4%
0%
y
ródło: Hans-Werner Sinn, The Pathological Export Boom and the Bazaar
y
ródło: Hans-Werner Sinn, The Pathological Export Boom and the Bazaar
US UK EEC Azja
Effect. How to Solve the German Puzzle?, CESifo Working PaperNo. 1708, s. 5
Effect. How to Solve the German Puzzle?, CESifo Working PaperNo. 1708, s. 5
Wydajność w krajach Europy Środkowej w relacji
Polska: eksport
do średniej w EU15 po uwzględnieniu niższych
kosztów pracy (bez ich uwzględnienia: 25%)
300%
Niemcy; 25,0%
250%
Pozostałe; 32,2%
200%
150%
100%
Francja; 6,2%
50%
Węgry; 2,8%
WÅ‚ochy; 6,1%
0%
Szwecja; 3,2%
Anglia; 5,7%
Holandia; 3,8%
Czechy; 5,6%
Rosja; 5,4%
Ukraina; 4,0%
y
ródło:Michael Marrese, The convergence of CEEMEA countries amid global recession, October 2008
" Persistent inflation differentials of the
" Persistent inflation differentials of the
Spanish economy are not linked to a
Spanish economy are not linked to a
structural catching-up process, thus the
structural catching-up process, thus the
self correction mechanisms are relatively
self correction mechanisms are relatively
Co  oprócz efektu BSE
Co  oprócz efektu BSE
weak, and may generate long-lasting losses
weak, and may generate long-lasting losses
in competitiveness.
in competitiveness.
 może prowadzić do
 może prowadzić do
wzrostu inflacji?
wzrostu inflacji?
J. David Lopez Hans-Werner Sinn,-Salido, Fernando Restoy, Inflation
J. David Lopez Hans-Werner Sinn,-Salido, Fernando Restoy, Inflation
Differentials in EMU: The Spanish Case, Banco De Espana, Documents de
Differentials in EMU: The Spanish Case, Banco De Espana, Documents de
Trabajo, No. 0514, 2005
Trabajo, No. 0514, 2005
4
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" The housing market often plays a central
" The housing market often plays a central
role in magnifying cycles.
role in magnifying cycles.
" Backward-looking or extrapolative
" Backward-looking or extrapolative
expectations in the housing markets in the
expectations in the housing markets in the
hosing market can be highly destabilizing
hosing market can be highly destabilizing
as temporary shocks are magnified and
as temporary shocks are magnified and
create large and long-lasting market
create large and long-lasting market
bubbles.
bubbles.
Peter Hoeller, David Rae, Housing Markets and Adjustment in Monetary Union,
Peter Hoeller, David Rae, Housing Markets and Adjustment in Monetary Union,
OECD, Economics Department Working Paper No. 550, April 17
OECD, Economics Department Working Paper No. 550, April 17
Euro adoption in CEE. Special report, Erste bank, May 8, 2008, s. 4
Euro adoption in CEE. Special report, Erste bank, May 8, 2008, s. 4
" The real estate bubble has overshadowed the
" The real estate bubble has overshadowed the
lack of competitiveness of the Spanish
lack of competitiveness of the Spanish
economy.
economy.
" While the construction sector is booming
" While the construction sector is booming
(over 700,000 houses were built in Spain in
(over 700,000 houses were built in Spain in
2004, more than the total in France, Germany,
2004, more than the total in France, Germany,
Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg combined),
Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg combined),
Jaki powstrzymać boom
Jaki powstrzymać boom
" manufacturing production regressed 0,4
" manufacturing production regressed 0,4
na rynku hipotecznym?
na rynku hipotecznym?
percent in 2005 (the automotive sector
percent in 2005 (the automotive sector
declined almost 9 percent in 2005) and
declined almost 9 percent in 2005) and
" exports was not experiencing almost any
" exports was not experiencing almost any
growth.
growth.
Sebastian Royo, The Euro and Economic reforms: The Case of Spain?
Sebastian Royo, The Euro and Economic reforms: The Case of Spain?
Paper presented at the Conference  The Euro and the Dollar University of
Paper presented at the Conference  The Euro and the Dollar University of
Miami, April 25, 2006
Miami, April 25, 2006
" A rational property tax is essential for
" A rational property tax is essential for
improving economic stability and resource
improving economic stability and resource
allocation.
allocation.
" To maximize the effectiveness of the
" To maximize the effectiveness of the
property tax as a national economic
property tax as a national economic
Jak zabezpieczyć się
Jak zabezpieczyć się
stabilizer, and to take it out of the political
stabilizer, and to take it out of the political
przed utratÄ…
przed utratÄ…
arena where politicians may be tempted to
arena where politicians may be tempted to
konkurencyjności w
konkurencyjności w
manipulate rates for short-term electoral
manipulate rates for short-term electoral
advantage, the rate setting power should be strefie euro?
advantage, the rate setting power should be strefie euro?
handed to the Bank of England.
handed to the Bank of England.
John Muellbauer, The U.K. and the Euro  The Role of Asymmetries
John Muellbauer, The U.K. and the Euro  The Role of Asymmetries
in Housing and Credit Market. W: Submissions on EMU from leading .
in Housing and Credit Market. W: Submissions on EMU from leading .
academics, HM Treasury 2003, s. 193-194
academics, HM Treasury 2003, s. 193-194
5
" 30% of the Danish workforce changes jobs
" 30% of the Danish workforce changes jobs
every year, while an average Dane only
every year, while an average Dane only
" I have been struck at how, in many cases,
" I have been struck at how, in many cases,
remains with the same company for 8 years
remains with the same company for 8 years
differences in productivity can be traced to
differences in productivity can be traced to
" High level of education spending (at 8% of differences in the competitive environment
" High level of education spending (at 8% of differences in the competitive environment
GDP, the highest in the world, with rather than from access to technology, or
GDP, the highest in the world, with rather than from access to technology, or
additional training through the FlexSecurity capital, or skilled labor.
additional training through the FlexSecurity capital, or skilled labor.
system)
system)
" More intense competition truly forces firms
" More intense competition truly forces firms
" In 2001 the government formed the to use the existing technology more
" In 2001 the government formed the to use the existing technology more
Globalization Council, chaired by the Prime effectively, and forces inefficient firms out.
Globalization Council, chaired by the Prime effectively, and forces inefficient firms out.
Minister, consisting of business leaders,
Minister, consisting of business leaders,
academic representatives, global experts,
academic representatives, global experts,
and labor union spokespersons. In 2006,
and labor union spokespersons. In 2006,
the government presented its globalisation
the government presented its globalisation
strategy.
strategy.
A. Macoun, B. Kramarz, E. Nowersztern, J. Kofod, M. Lundgren, The Danish Olivier Blanchard,  Is there a viable European social and economic model? ,
A. Macoun, B. Kramarz, E. Nowersztern, J. Kofod, M. Lundgren, The Danish Olivier Blanchard,  Is there a viable European social and economic model? ,
Design Cluster, May 4, 2007 Van Lanschot lecture, Tilburg University, july 2006
Design Cluster, May 4, 2007 Van Lanschot lecture, Tilburg University, july 2006
" Against the background of still highly sheltered
" Against the background of still highly sheltered
domestic markets, the efficacy of competition
domestic markets, the efficacy of competition
enforcement is key.
enforcement is key.
" Increased independence accorded to the future
" Increased independence accorded to the future
Comision Nacional de Competencia.
Comision Nacional de Competencia.
" To promote such independence, Parliament will
" To promote such independence, Parliament will
Jakie czynniki zmniejszałyby
Jakie czynniki zmniejszałyby
need to exercise its new consultative role in the
need to exercise its new consultative role in the
appointment of the Commission s members.
appointment of the Commission s members.
zmniejszać możliwą
zmniejszać możliwą
" The independence of sectoral regulators should
" The independence of sectoral regulators should
procykliczność wpływu
procykliczność wpływu
also be enhanced, with an extension of
also be enhanced, with an extension of
Parliamentary oversight to the nomination of all
Parliamentary oversight to the nomination of all
polityki pieniężnej EBC na
polityki pieniężnej EBC na
their members,
their members,
polskÄ… gospodarkÄ™?
polskÄ… gospodarkÄ™?
" And the establishment of an arm s length
" And the establishment of an arm s length
relationship with the relevant sectoral ministers.
relationship with the relevant sectoral ministers.
Spain: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation
Spain: IMF, 2008 Article IV Consultation
" Without political union, the ECB lacks a
" Without political union, the ECB lacks a
" Reformy strukturalne
" Reformy strukturalne
public constituency supporting its
public constituency supporting its
" deregulacja rynków, monetary stance in the face of political
" deregulacja rynków, monetary stance in the face of political
pressure. Public support was a cornerstone
pressure. Public support was a cornerstone
" silne preferencje dla wydatków na naukę i
" silne preferencje dla wydatków na naukę i
for the German Bundesbank s ability to
for the German Bundesbank s ability to
oświatę (Szwecja, Finlandia),
oświatę (Szwecja, Finlandia),
pursue low-inflation hard-currency policy.
pursue low-inflation hard-currency policy.
" zwiększenie elastyczności rynków pracy
" zwiększenie elastyczności rynków pracy
" Monetary union is thus likely to undergo a
" Monetary union is thus likely to undergo a
(Dania, Holandia)
(Dania, Holandia)
major stress.
major stress.
" Regulacje zmniejszajÄ…ce ryzyko pojawienia
" Regulacje zmniejszajÄ…ce ryzyko pojawienia
się niestabilnych boomów kredytowych
się niestabilnych boomów kredytowych
" Rada Polityki Fiskalnej: wydłużenie
" Rada Polityki Fiskalnej: wydłużenie
horyzontu decyzyjnego; uwolnienie polityki
horyzontu decyzyjnego; uwolnienie polityki
fiskalnej od wpływu cyklu wyborczego
fiskalnej od wpływu cyklu wyborczego
Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros,  Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros,  Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy,
House Prices and Structural Reforms , Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.
House Prices and Structural Reforms , Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeitrage Nr.
271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006, p. 29
271/2006, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2006, p. 29
6